171
AXPZ20 KNHC 300407
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN NOV 30 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0350 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 10N108W TO 09N127W.
THE ITCZ STRETCHES FROM 09N127W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 07N TO
21N BETWEEN 103W AND 121W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A 1035 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
SUPPORTS FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS TO 6
FT ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS
UNDER A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT, ALLOWING FOR PRIMARILY
MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS FROM 17N TO 23N,
AFFECTING THE OFFSHORE WATERS SW OF CABO SAN LUCAS AND THE
ENTRANCE OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, OR FROM SAN JOSE DEL CABO TO
CABO CORRIENTES. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC, DIMINISHING TO FRESH SPEEDS LATER TONIGHT. STRONG
SPEED WINDS WILL BRIEFLY RESUME IN TEHUANTEPEC SUN NIGHT INTO
MON, AND THEN AGAIN TUE NIGHT INTO WED. OTHERWISE, A SURFACE
TROUGH IS DEVELOPING SW OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR OFFSHORE
WATERS AND THEN WILL DRIFT NE, IMPACTING THE WATERS NEAR THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS WITH MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS SUN
INTO MON. LOOKING AHEAD, A SERIES OF LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL WILL
REACH THE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE OFFSHORE WATERS MID-WEEK.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS
MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY NE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO. MEANWHILE, SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND
BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS, WINDS ARE GENTLE TO
MODERATE FROM THE S TO SW AND SEAS ARE MODERATE TO 5 FT.
ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS
PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH NE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL
IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH MON MORNING, AND RESUME AGAIN WED
NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. MODERATE OR LIGHTER WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS ARE FORECAST ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A COLD FRONT IS ACROSS THE FAR NW WATERS, EXTENDING FROM 30N131W
TO 29N140W AND GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 26N
BETWEEN 125W AND 133W. LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT IS SUPPORTING ROUGH SEAS IN THE 8 TO 10 FT RANGE N OF 26N
AND WEST OF 130W. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN WATERS AND TROPICAL MOISTURE ARE SUPPORTING A LARGE AREA
OF SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N TO
22N BETWEEN 106W AND 120W. THE REST OF THE TROPICAL EASTERN
PACIFIC WATERS ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A 1020 MB HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR 28N145W. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ CONTINUES TO SUSTAIN MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH NE TO E WINDS N OF THESE BOUNDARIES TO ABOUT 20N AND W OF
105W. SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE 5-8 FT. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, A LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL PROGRESSING ACROSS THE
NW WATERS WILL PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD BEFORE DIMINISHING SUN NIGHT.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS
WILL PERSIST IN THE WESTERN TROPICAL WATERS THROUGH SUN MORNING.
ANOTHER LARGE SET OF NW SWELL IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE TO THE NW
WATERS BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SEAS PEAKING AROUND 12 FT.
RAMOS
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