286
AXPZ20 KNHC 301519
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN NOV 30 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1430 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 09N106W TO 08N128W.
THE ITCZ STRETCHES FROM 08N128W TO BEYOND 06N140W. NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM 09N TO 21N BETWEEN
109W AND 118W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN MEXICO IS CAUSING MODERATE TO
FRESH N WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH
WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM SW OF THE REVILLAGIGEDO
ISLANDS IS INDUCING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN WATERS NEAR
THE ISLANDS AS WELL FRESH NE WINDS, LOCALLY HIGHER IN AND NEAR
STRONGER CONVECTION. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS IN A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH GENTLE NW WINDS. MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL FOR
MOST OFFSHORE WATERS, WITH SLIGHT SEAS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL
REACH STRONG SPEEDS TUE NIGHT INTO WED. OTHERWISE, A SURFACE
TROUGH SW OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR OFFSHORE WATERS WILL MEANDER
IN THAT REGION BRINGING SHOWERS, AND ALSO IMPACTING THE WATERS
NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS WITH FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS
THROUGH EARLY MON. LOOKING AHEAD, LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL WILL
REACH THE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE OFFSHORE WATERS TUE INTO THU
BEFORE SUBSIDING.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS
MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO. MEANWHILE, SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND BETWEEN
ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS, WINDS ARE GENTLE TO MODERATE
FROM THE S TO SW AND SEAS ARE MODERATE TO 5 FT. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT
TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH NE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL
IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH MON MORNING, AND RESUME AGAIN WED
NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. MODERATE OR LIGHTER WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS ARE FORECAST ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER NW WATERS EXTENDS FROM 30N129W TO
26N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED E OF THIS FRONT,
N OF 26N BETWEEN 126W AND 132W. ONLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
WINDS ACCOMPANY AND FOLLOW THE FRONT, BUT SWELL GENERATED FROM
HIGHER WINDS TO THE NORTH IS CAUSING ROUGH SEAS TO THE N OF THE
BOUNDARY. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH WITH AN AXIS ROUGHLY ALONG 115W,
FROM 10N TO 20N IS CAUSING CONVECTION, DESCRIBED IN THE MONSOON
TROUGH SECTION ABOVE. IN THE ZONE FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 115W
AND 120W, FRESH WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE PRESENT IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS TROUGH. LOCALLY HAZARDOUS
WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CONVECTION. THE
REST OF THE TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN
EXPANSIVE 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE NW. THE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON
TROUGH AND ITCZ SUSTAINS MODERATE NE TO E WINDS N OF THESE
BOUNDARIES TO ABOUT 20N AND W OF 120W. SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE
5-7 FT. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE WEAK COLD FRONT IN NW WATERS WILL DRIFT S
THROUGH MON, THEN DISSIPATE. MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST
IN THE WESTERN TROPICAL WATERS TODAY. NEW LARGE NW SWELL IS
FORECAST TO ARRIVE TO THE NW WATERS LATE TODAY THROUGH WITH SEAS
PEAKING AROUND 12 FT. ROUGH SEAS WILL REACH E TO 120W AND S TO
10N TUE AND TUE NIGHT, BEFORE DECAYING INTO LATE WEEK.
KONARIK
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