532
AXPZ20 KNHC 302044
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN NOV 30 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2030 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N81W TO 08N105W TO 08N128W.
THE ITCZ STRETCHES FROM 08N128W TO BEYOND 06N140W. NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM 11N TO 20N
BETWEEN 109W AND 116W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
HIGHER PRESSURE OVER MEXICO IS CAUSING FRESH GAP WINDS IN THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. A DEEP LATER TROUGH WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS LEADING TO SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NEAR THE ISLANDS. FRESH N WINDS ARE
OCCURRING IN THIS AREA AND EXTEND NE TO CABO CORRIENTES AND THE
MOUTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS
ARE LIKELY IN THE STRONGER CONVECTION, ESPECIALLY AROUND SOCORRO
ISLAND. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS IN A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS. MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL FOR
MOST OFFSHORE WATERS, WITH SLIGHT SEAS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL
PULSE TO STRONG TONIGHT AND AGAIN LATE TUE INTO WED MORNING. A
TROUGH JUST SW OF THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS WILL MEANDER NEAR
THE ISLANDS THROUGH TUE, BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
POSSIBLY LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS. LOOKING AHEAD,
MODERATE LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL WILL REACH THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
NORTE OFFSHORE WATERS TUE, THEN SUBSIDE STARTING THU.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS
MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. SOUTH OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH AND BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS,
WINDS ARE GENTLE TO MODERATE FROM THE S TO SW. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT
TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL. MODERATE SEAS DOMINATE AREA WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH GAP WINDS WILL PULSE NIGHTLY THIS WEEK
IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION. MODERATE OR LIGHTER WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS ARE FORECAST ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
WEAK LOW PRESSURE HAS SLIDE SOUTHWARD TO NEAR 30N129W. A WEAK
COLD FRONT TRAILS FROM THIS 1014 MB LOW TO 25N134W OVER TO
25N140W. EARLIER CONVECTION NEAR THE FRONT HAS DISSIPATED TODAY.
ONLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS ACCOMPANY AND FOLLOW THE
FRONT AND LOW, AND ASSOCIATED SWELL HAS NOW DECAYED, ALLOW WAVE
HEIGHTS TO FALL BELOW 8 FT. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH WITH AN AXIS
ROUGHLY ALONG 115W, FROM 10N TO 20N IS CAUSING CONVECTION,
DESCRIBED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH SECTION ABOVE. FROM 15N TO 20N
BETWEEN 112W AND 122W, FRESH WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH. THE REST OF THE TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF MODEST RIDGING, LEAVING WINDS MAINLY GENTLE, AND
SEAS MODERATE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE WEAK COLD FRONT IN NW WATERS WILL DRIFT S
THROUGH MON, THEN DISSIPATE. LARGE NW SWELL WILL ARRIVE TO THE
NW WATERS LATE TODAY WITH SEAS PEAKING AROUND 12 FT MON. ROUGH
SEAS WILL REACH E TO 122W AND S TO 10N TUE AND TUE NIGHT, BEFORE
DECAYING INTO LATE WEEK.
KONARIK
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