557
AXPZ20 KNHC 031515
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED DEC 3 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1500 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N85W TO 07N100W. THE ITCZ RUNS
FROM 07N100W TO 12N119W, THEN RESUMES FROM 07N133W TO BEYOND
07N140W. A SURFACE TROUGH BREAKS THE ITCZ, ANALYZED FROM 19N118W
TO 08N130W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS IN THE VICINITY OF
THE TROUGH BETWEEN 109W-123W, FROM 07N TO 10N E OF 104W, AND
FROM 06N TO 11N W OF 130W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A SURFACE TROUGH PREVAILS SW OF THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS IS
AIDING IN SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF
SOCORRO ISLAND. FRESH GAP WINDS ARE NOTED IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC AND IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. ELSEWHERE,
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS DOMINATE.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC WILL SUBSIDE TO GENTLE THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE
TROUGH JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE ISLANDS THROUGH THU. MODERATE TO FRESH N
WINDS WILL PULSE NIGHTLY IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA
THROUGH THU NIGHT.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS
FRESH NE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN PAPAGAYO REGION. S OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH, GENTLE S TO SW WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
ELSEWHERE, MAINLY LIGHT WINDS WITH MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH GAP WINDS WILL PERSIST NEAR
THE PAPAGAYO REGION INTO THU NIGHT. MODERATE OR LIGHTER WINDS
AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ALONG 125W BETWEEN 20N AND 30N
IS INDUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN
118W AND 126W. A SURFACE TROUGH THAT STRETCHES FROM SOCORRO
ISLAND TO 10N127W IS CAUSING NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION FROM
15N TO 25N BETWEEN 114W AND 118W.
BROAD AND WEAK RIDGING EXTENDING SOUTH FROM A 1029 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OFF OREGON IS SUPPORTING MAINLY GENTLE WINDS
ACROSS THE BASIN, WITH MODERATE SEAS. A ZONE OF MODERATE TO FRESH NE
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS, IN PRIMARILY NW SWELL, IS NOTED FROM 07N TO
28N, W OF 120W.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE LARGE NW SWELL CAUSING ROUGH SEAS WILL
DECAY BY TONIGHT, WITH MODERATE SEAS THEN PREVAILING INTO THE
WEEKEND. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL DOMINATE N OF THE ITCZ TO
25N AND W OF 125W INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH MODERATE OR WEAKER
WINDS ELSEWHERE.
KONARIK
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