029
AXPZ20 KNHC 040857
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU DEC 4 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0800 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 09N100W. THE ITCZ RUNS
FROM 09N100W TO 11N121W, THEN RESUMES FROM 07N128W TO BEYOND
04N140W. A SURFACE TROUGH BREAKS THE ITCZ, ANALYZED FROM 22N119W
TO 07N127W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE MONSOON
TROUGH AND E OF 86W, FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN 99W AND 107W, AND
FROM 07N TO 12N AND 118W AND 126W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A SURFACE TROUGH PREVAILING SW OF THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS IS
AIDING IN SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF
SOCORRO ISLAND. FRESH GAP WINDS ARE NOTED IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. MODERATE N WINDS ARE NOTED IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC AND OFF THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR.
OTHERWISE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL. MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL
ACROSS THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA, WHILE SLIGHT SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE SURFACE TROUGH JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE ISLANDS
THROUGH TONIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH N WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS
FRESH NE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN PAPAGAYO REGION. S OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH, GENTLE S TO SW WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
ELSEWHERE, MAINLY LIGHT WINDS WITH MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH GAP WINDS WILL PERSIST NEAR
THE PAPAGAYO REGION INTO TONIGHT. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE INTO THE START OF
NEXT WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING ROUGHLY ALONG 122W AND N OF
07N IS INDUCING NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
FROM 07N TO 12N AND 118W AND 126W. TO THE WEST OF THIS AXIS,
MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS, WITH ROUGH SEAS, DOMINATE N OF THE ITCZ.
ELSEWHERE, GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE LARGE NW SWELL CAUSING ROUGH SEAS WILL
DECAY TODAY, WITH MODERATE SEAS THEN PREVAILING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL DOMINATE N OF THE ITCZ TO
25N AND W OF 125W INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS
ELSEWHERE.
ERA
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