094
AXPZ20 KNHC 041509
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU DEC 4 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 09N100W. THE ITCZ RUNS
FROM 09N100W TO 09N125W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 09N E OF 86W, FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN
99W AND 107W, AND FROM 07N TO 12N AND 118W AND 126W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A SURFACE TROUGH PREVAILING W OF THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS IS
AIDING IN SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE
ISLANDS. FRESH GAP WINDS ARE NOTED IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. OTHERWISE, MAINLY GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL. MODERATE
SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS AND THE NORTHERN
GULF OF CALIFORNIA, WHILE SLIGHT SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE SURFACE TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE ISLANDS
INTO FRI. MODERATE TO FRESH N WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE NORTHERN
GULF OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE REGION MAY LEAD TO INCREASING WINDS IN BOTH THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA AND THE GULF OF TEHUNATEPEC FOR THE START OF NEXT
WEEK.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS
FRESH NE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN AND TO THE WEST OF THE
PAPAGAYO REGION. S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, GENTLE S TO SW WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL. ELSEWHERE, MAINLY LIGHT WINDS WITH
MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH GAP WINDS WILL PERSIST NEAR
THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 121W BETWEEN 10N AND 28N
IS INDUCING NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 118W
AND 126W. TO THE WEST OF THIS AXIS, MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS, DOMINATE
N OF THE ITCZ. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL DOMINATE N OF
THE ITCZ TO 25N AND W OF 125W INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS ELSEWHERE. MODERATE SEAS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL, BUT
NW SWELL COMBINED WITH EASTERLY WIND WAVES MAY LEAD TO SOME ROUGH
SEAS FRI INTO SAT N OF 20N AND W OF 135W.
KONARIK
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