752
AXPZ20 KNHC 051550
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI DEC 5 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1530 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09.5N85W TO 09N112W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 09N112W TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 85W AND 90W, FROM
11N TO 15N BETWEEN 102W AND 110W AND FROM 06N TO 08N BETWEEN
130W AND 133W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A SURFACE TROUGH HAS BEEN ANALYZED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA THROUGH NORTHWESTERN MEXICO, AND A SECOND TROUGH IS
NOTED OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM 22N112.5W TO
14.5N118W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES IS
SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH N WINDS OFFSHORE OF SINALOA THROUGH
COLIMA. MAINLY MODERATE NW WINDS AND 1 TO 4 FT SEAS ARE NOTED IN
THE GULF ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. MODERATE N TO NE WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL OFFSHORE OF BAJA AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC, WHILE MAINLY GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS CONTINUE OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH N TO NW WINDS WILL PULSE OFFSHORE OF
WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO INTO EARLY SAT AS A MODERATE PRESSURE
GRADIENT PREVAILS BETWEEN TROUGHING OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
AND A SURFACE TROUGH OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. FARTHER NORTH,
OCCASIONALLY FRESH N TO NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD, STRONG TO
NEAR-GALE FORCE N GAP WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OVER
THE GULF OF AMERICA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN CENTRAL MEXICO IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
PREVAILING LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS
SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO,
AND LOCALLY MODERATE N WINDS IN THE GULF OF PANAMA. GENTLE TO
MODERATE N TO NE WINDS ARE OCCURRING ELSEWHERE NORTH OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH, WITH MODERATE S TO SW WINDS NOTED TO THE SOUTH.
MODERATE SEAS IN MIXED NW AND S SWELL PREVAIL OVER THE REGIONAL
WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH NE GAP WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO INTO EARLY SAT AS LOW PRESSURE PREVAILS IN THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. OTHERWISE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS IN MIXED NW AND S SWELL ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
REGIONAL WATERS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A SURFACE TROUGH HAS BEEN ANALYZED OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR FROM 22N112.5W TO 14.5N118W, AND LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE
OCCURRING NEAR THIS FEATURE. OTHERWISE, A 1033 MB HIGH CENTERED
NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 37N140W EXTENDS RIDGING THROUGH THE
EASTERN PACIFIC NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ, AND
MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS AND 5 TO 8 FT SEAS IN MIXED NW AND NE
TO E SWELL ARE OCCURRING IN THIS REGION. TO THE SOUTH, MAINLY
MODERATE S TO SE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN NW SWELL PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE WINDS WILL OCCUR
NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE EASTERN PACIFIC. MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL TO THE SOUTH. ROUGH SEAS WILL
BUILD IN THE WESTERN WATERS NORTH OF 05N AND WEST OF 129W THIS
WEEKEND BEFORE SEAS SUBSIDE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODERATE SEAS ARE
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
ADAMS
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