828
AXPZ20 KNHC 052148
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI DEC 5 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2130 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 08.5N117W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 08.5N117W TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN 80W AND 92W,
FROM 11N TO 19N BETWEEN 102W AND 111W AND FROM 06N TO 08N
BETWEEN 131W AND 134W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A SURFACE TROUGH HAS BEEN ANALYZED OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO, AND
A SECOND TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ALONG BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE TO
13N121W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES IS
SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH N WINDS OFFSHORE OF SINALOA THROUGH
JALISCO. ALONG THE SECOND TROUGH OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR,
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS ARE NOTED. RECENT SCATTEROMETER
SATELLITE DATA SHOW MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS AND 1 TO 4
FT SEAS PREVAIL IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. MODERATE N TO NE
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL OFFSHORE OF BAJA NORTE AS WEAK
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC, WHILE MAINLY GENTLE
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS CONTINUE OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG N TO NW WINDS WILL
PULSE OFFSHORE OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO INTO EARLY SAT AS A
MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT PREVAILS BETWEEN TROUGHING OVER
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG BAJA CALIFORNIA.
FARTHER NORTH, OCCASIONALLY FRESH N TO NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD,
STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE N GAP WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL DEVELOP
IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES OVER THE GULF OF AMERICA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
CENTRAL MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
PREVAILING LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS
SUPPORTING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE WINDS IN THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO, AND LOCALLY MODERATE N WINDS IN THE GULF OF PANAMA, AS
NOTED VIA RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA. GENTLE TO MODERATE N TO NE
WINDS ARE OCCURRING ELSEWHERE NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, WITH
MAINLY MODERATE S TO SW WINDS NOTED TO THE SOUTH. MODERATE SEAS
IN MIXED NW AND S SWELL PREVAIL OVER THE REGIONAL WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH NE GAP WINDS WILL PULSE IN
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO INTO EARLY SAT AS LOW PRESSURE PREVAILS IN
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. OTHERWISE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS IN MIXED NW AND S SWELL ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
REGIONAL WATERS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A SURFACE TROUGH HAS BEEN ANALYZED ALONG BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE
TO 13N122W, AND MODERATE WINDS ARE OCCURRING NEAR THIS FEATURE.
OTHERWISE, A 1033 MB HIGH CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 37N140W
EXTENDS RIDGING THROUGH THE EASTERN PACIFIC NORTH OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH AND ITCZ, AND MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS AND 6 TO 9 FT
SEAS IN MIXED NW AND NE TO E SWELL ARE OCCURRING IN THIS REGION.
TO THE SOUTH, MAINLY MODERATE S TO SE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN
NW SWELL PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE WINDS WILL OCCUR
NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE EASTERN PACIFIC. MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL TO THE SOUTH. ROUGH SEAS WILL
BUILD IN THE WESTERN WATERS NORTH OF 05N AND WEST OF 128W THIS
WEEKEND BEFORE SEAS SUBSIDE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODERATE
SEAS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
ADAMS
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