001
AXPZ20 KNHC 060208
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT DEC 6 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0000 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 09N100W TO 08.5N112.5W.
THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 08.5N112.5W TO 09N120W TO BEYOND 07N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 04N TO 09.5N
BETWEEN 79W AND 94W, FROM 07N TO 09.5N BETWEEN 105W AND 113W, AND
FROM 07N TO 09.5N BETWEEN 116W AND 120W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 11N TO 20N BETWEEN 101W AND 110W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO, AND A
SECOND TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ALONG BAJA CALIFORNIA TO NEAR THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS TO 11N116W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND OFFSHORE
BAJA CALIFORNIA TO THE W OF THE TROUGH AXIS. MEANWHILE A SURGE OF
NORTHERLY FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IS NOTED OFFSHORE MAZATLAN. WINDS
ARE MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS.
SEAS ARE MAINLY MODERATE EXCEPT SLIGHT IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. ACTIVE CONVECTION IS NOTED OFFSHORE SW MEXICO AS
DESCRIBED ABOVE DUE TO A LOWER TO MID LEVEL TROUGH WITH UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE OFF TO THE SE.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
PULSE OFFSHORE MAZATLAN UNTIL LATE TONIGHT AS A MODERATE
PRESSURE GRADIENT PREVAILS BETWEEN TROUGHING OVER NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO AND A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG BAJA CALIFORNIA. FARTHER
NORTH, OCCASIONALLY FRESH N TO NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD, STRONG TO
NEAR-GALE FORCE N GAP WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OVER
THE GULF OF AMERICA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN CENTRAL MEXICO
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
PREVAILING LOW PRESSURE IN THE S-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS SUPPORTING
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND
DOWNWIND TO NEAR 10N94W, WITH LOCALLY MODERATE N WINDS IN THE
GULF OF PANAMA. GENTLE TO MODERATE N TO NE WINDS ARE OCCURRING
ELSEWHERE N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, WITH MAINLY MODERATE S TO SW
WINDS NOTED TO THE S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. MODERATE SEAS IN
MIXED NW AND S SWELL PREVAIL OVER THE REGIONAL WATERS, EXCEPT
SLIGHT NEARSHORE COLOMBIA AND EASTERN PANAMA.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH NE GAP WINDS WILL PULSE IN
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO INTO EARLY SAT AS LOW PRESSURE PREVAILS IN
THE S-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. OTHERWISE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS IN MIXED NW AND S SWELL ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
REGIONAL WATERS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS INTERIOR CENTRAL AMERICA BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK, SUPPORTING PULSING FRESH WINDS IN THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG BAJA CALIFORNIA TO NEAR THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS TO 11N116W. OTHERWISE, HIGH CENTERED WELL
NW OF THE AREA EXTENDS A RIDGE THROUGH 30N134W TO 14N120W TO THE
N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ. MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS AND
6-9 FT SEAS IN MIXED NW AND NE TO E SWELL ARE OCCURRING IN THIS
REGION. TO THE S, MAINLY MODERATE S TO SE WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS IN NW SWELL PREVAIL, LOCALLY ROUGH NEAR 05N109W.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE WINDS WILL OCCUR
N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE EASTERN PACIFIC WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH
LINGERS. MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE,
EXCEPT LOCALLY FRESH S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND W OF 110W AT
TIMES. ROUGH SEAS WILL BUILD IN THE WESTERN WATERS N OF 06N AND
WEST OF 127W THIS WEEKEND BEFORE SEAS SUBSIDE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. A NEW SET OF ROUGH NW SWELL MAY ARRIVE OVER THE NW
WATERS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
LEWITSKY
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