030
AXPZ20 KNHC 061551
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT DEC 6 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 07N95W TO 12N107W TO
08N122W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 08N122W TO BEYOND 08N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN
100W AND 113W, AND FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 113W AND 121W. SIMILAR
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING FROM 06N TO 08N W OF 135W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM THE SW COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 18N104W
TO 12N107W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED
FROM 14N TO 19N BETWEEN 102W AND 107W. MODERATE SE WINDS ARE ON THE
E SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. OTHERWISE, A RIDGE DOMINATES THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUPPORTING MAINLY MODERATE NW TO
N WINDS WITH MODERATE SEAS IN NW SWELL. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA,
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL, MAINLY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE GULF WHERE SEAS ARE 2 TO 4 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, OCCASIONALLY FRESH N TO NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED
IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH TUE DUE TO THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN A TROUGH OVER NW MEXICO AND A RIDGE OFFSHORE
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. LOOKING AHEAD, THE NEXT GAP WIND
EVENT IS EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON MON AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES OVER THE GULF OF AMERICA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT. STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS EVENT. FRESH N WINDS MAY DEVELOP NEAR
CABO CORRIENTES TUE NIGHT INTO WED.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE WINDS ARE NOTED IN THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO. GENTLE TO MODERATE N TO NE WINDS ARE OCCURRING
ELSEWHERE N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, WITH MAINLY MODERATE S TO SW
WINDS NOTED TO THE S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. MODERATE SEAS IN
MIXED NW AND S SWELL PREVAIL OVER THE REGIONAL WATERS, EXCEPT
SLIGHT NEARSHORE COLOMBIA AND EASTERN PANAMA.
FOR THE FORECAST, GENTLE TO MODERATE NE TO E WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS IN MIXED NW AND S SWELL ARE EXPECTED OVER THE REGIONAL
WATERS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1029 MB CENTERED NEAR 36N137W DOMINATES THE
WATERS N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ AND W OF 110W. MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADES ARE NOTED ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
ASSOCIATED RIDGE, PARTICULARLY FROM 07N TO 20N W OF 130W. SEAS
ARE 6 TO 8 FT WITHIN THESE WINDS. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NOTED ELSEWHERE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
RIDGE. TO THE S OF THE ITCZ AND W OF 120W, MODERATE TO FRESH SE
WINDS ARE OCCURRING, WITH MAINLY MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE WATERS ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE WINDS WILL OCCUR
N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS. MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT LOCALLY FRESH S OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH AND W OF 100W AT TIMES. ROUGH SEAS WILL PERSIST IN
THE WESTERN WATERS N OF 06N AND WEST OF 127W THIS WEEKEND BEFORE
THEY SUBSIDE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. LOOKING AHEAD, A NEW SET OF
ROUGH NW SWELL MAY ARRIVE OVER THE NW WATERS BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
GR
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