378
AXPZ20 KNHC 062106
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT DEC 6 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 07N95W TO 12N107W TO
08N122W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 08N122W TO BEYOND 08N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN
100W AND 125W, AND FROM 06N TO 09N W OF 135W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM W OF LAS MARIAS ISLANDS TO NEAR
17N110W. THIS TROUGH IS A REFLECTION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.
STRONG SW WINDS ALOFT ON THE E SIDE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
SUPPORT AN AREA OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION THAT
COVERS THE WATERS FROM 14N TO 19N BETWEEN 102W AND 106.5W. THE
SURFACE TROUGH IS WELL DEFINED ON SCATTEROMETER DATA WITH MAINLY
MODERATE N WINDS ON THE W SIDE OF THE TROUGH. OTHERWISE, A RIDGE
DOMINATES THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
PRODUCING MAINLY MODERATE NW TO N WINDS WITH MODERATE SEAS IN NW
SWELL. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY
WINDS PREVAIL, MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE GULF WHERE
SEAS ARE 2 TO 4 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, OCCASIONALLY FRESH NW TO N WINDS ARE EXPECTED
IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH TUE DUE TO THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN A TROUGH OVER NW MEXICO AND A RIDGE OFFSHORE
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. LOOKING AHEAD, THE NEXT GAP WIND
EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON MON AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES OVER THE GULF OF AMERICA AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. STRONG TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS ARE FORECAST WITH THIS EVENT MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE
NIGHT. FRESH N WINDS MAY DEVELOP NEAR CABO CORRIENTES TUE NIGHT
INTO WED.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
RECENT SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA INDICATE GENTLE TO MODERATE
NE WINDS IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION AND DOWNWIND TO NEAR 87W.
ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE NOTED N OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH, WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE S WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF IT.
MODERATE SEAS, PRIMARILY IN LONG PERIOD NW SWELL, PREVAIL ACROSS
THE REGIONAL WATERS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SLIGHT SEAS NEARSHORE,
AND IN THE LEE OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS.
FOR THE FORECAST, GENTLE TO MODERATE NE TO E WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS IN MIXED NW AND S SWELL ARE EXPECTED OVER THE REGIONAL
WATERS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS GENERATED BY A GAP WIND EVENT
IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
OUTER OFFSHORE WATERS OF EL SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA ON TUE.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED N OF AREA AND ITS ASSOCIATED
RIDGE DOMINATES THE WATERS N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ AND W OF
110W. MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS ARE NOTED FROM 08N TO 23N W OF
130W BASED ON RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA. SEAS ARE 6 TO 8 FT
WITHIN THESE WINDS. MAINLY MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NOTED
ELSEWHERE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE. TO THE S OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ AND W OF 110W, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SE
WINDS ARE OCCURRING. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS, PRIMARILY IN LONG PERIOD NW SWELL, PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE WATERS N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
AND W OF 110W THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK SUPPORTING
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS. MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT LOCALLY FRESH S OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH AND W OF 100W AT TIMES. ROUGH SEAS WILL PERSIST IN
THE WESTERN WATERS ROUGHLY FROM 15N TO 25N AND W OF 130W THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEKEND BEFORE SUBSIDING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
LOOKING AHEAD, A NEW SET OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL IS FORECAST TO
REACH THE NW PART OF THE FORECAST REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
GR
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