970
AXPZ20 KNHC 132000
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT DEC 13 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2000 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS
THE GULF OF AMERICA SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE AND THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH WILL USHER
IN THE NEXT GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE- FORCE GAP WIND EVENT. FRESH
TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION WILL INCREASE TO GALE
FORCE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO SHIFT
EASTWARD AND WEAKEN MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LOOSEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND DIMINISH WINDS BELOW GALE FORCE BY TUE MORNING.
ROUGH SEAS WILL DEVELOP SUN NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUE NIGHT,
PEAKING AROUND 13-14 FT (4 M). CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT WEBSITE: HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML
FOR MORE INFORMATION.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 07N91W TO 10N121W. THE
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 10N121W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 06N TO 11N BETWEEN 86W AND
108W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED
FROM 08N TO 15N BETWEEN 113W AND 120W, AND FROM 06N TO 11N
BETWEEN 120W AND 131W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. PLEASE
SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE OVER AND DOWNSTREAM THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. ELSEWHERE, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA
IS SUPPORTING LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS. MODERATE SEAS ARE WEST OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AS WELL AS OVER THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. SLIGHT SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL INCREASE TO GALE- FORCE SUN EVENING. THE GALE
FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TUE. ELSEWHERE, MAINLY
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
AND ROUGH SEAS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE OVER AND DOWNSTREAM THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO, WHILE LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE N OF 07N.
GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL S OF 07N. SEAS ARE
MAINLY MODERATE IN MIXED SW AND NW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, GENTLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL NORTH OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, EXCEPT PULSING FRESH TO
STRONG IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. MODERATE N WINDS WILL PULSE IN
THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS WILL PREVAIL SOUTH OF MONSOON TROUGH. MODERATE SEAS IN
MIXED SW AND NW SWELL ARE EXPECTED OVER THE REGIONAL WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ROUGH SEAS MAY
DEVELOP IN THE FAR OFFSHORE WATERS OF GUATEMALA BY MON DUE TO
THE TEHUANTEPEC GALE FORCE GAP EVENT.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE WATERS N OF 20N, ANCHORED BY A
1021 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N132W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE ITCZ AND WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH IS SUPPORTING
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS N OF THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH TO
AROUND 20N AND WEST OF 115W. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE HIGH CENTER. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE OVER THE DISCUSSION WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 117W WILL MOVE WESTWARD
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, SUPPORTING ACTIVE CONVECTION ALONG WITH
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
TO MIDWEEK, HIGH PRESSURE WILL FURTHER BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN
WATERS, TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SUPPORT FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS OVER MUCH OF THE
TRADEWIND BELT WEST OF 120W.
AL
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