255
AXPZ20 KNHC 140309
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN DEC 14 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0305 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS
THE GULF OF AMERICA SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE AND THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH WILL USHER
IN THE NEXT GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE-FORCE GAP WIND EVENT. FRESH
TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION WILL INCREASE TO
GALE FORCE SUNDAY EVENING. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL START
TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND WEAKEN MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LOOSEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DIMINISH WINDS BELOW GALE FORCE BY TUE
MORNING. ROUGH SEAS WILL DEVELOP SUN NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
TUE NIGHT, PEAKING AROUND 13-14 FT (4 M). CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT WEBSITE: HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML
FOR MORE INFORMATION.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF COSTA RICA NEAR 09N84W
TO 08N100W TO 11N116W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 120W.
ITCZ STRETCHES FROM 09N124W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 06N TO 16N AND
BETWEEN 93W AND 133W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. PLEASE
SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS
SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS OF 5-7 FT. IN
THE REMAINDER OF THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS, A WEAK SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 29N133W EXTENDS TO THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS.
GENTLE TO MODERATE NW-N WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE
FOUND IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, GULF OF
CALIFORNIA AND OFF CABO CORRIENTES. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL INCREASE TO GALE- FORCE SUN EVENING. THE GALE
FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TUE. ELSEWHERE, MAINLY
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
AND ROUGH SEAS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA SUPPORTS MODERATE TO FRESH
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ACROSS THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO, EXTENDING DOWNSTREAM TO 89W. FARTHER SOUTH, GENTLE TO
MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE PRESENT SOUTH OF
05N. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR LIGHTER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE
PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, GENTLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL NORTH OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, EXCEPT PULSING FRESH TO
STRONG IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. MODERATE N WINDS WILL PULSE IN
THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS WILL PREVAIL SOUTH OF MONSOON TROUGH. MODERATE SEAS IN
MIXED SW AND NW SWELL ARE EXPECTED OVER THE REGIONAL WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ROUGH SEAS MAY
DEVELOP IN THE FAR OFFSHORE WATERS OF GUATEMALA MON DUE TO THE
TEHUANTEPEC GALE FORCE GAP EVENT.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
THE NORTHERN WATERS OF THE TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC ARE DOMINATED
BY A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 29N133W. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND LOWER PRESSURES ASSOCIATED WITH
A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 120W AND THE ITCZ RESULTS IN MODERATE TO
FRESH EASTERLY WINDS FROM 09N TO 21N AND WEST OF 117W. SEAS IN
THESE WATERS ARE 6-8 FT. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO PRODUCING A
LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MARINERS CAN EXPECT
STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS NEAR THE STRONGER STORMS.
MEANWHILE, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS ARE OCCURRING SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ. GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE OVER THE
DISCUSSION WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 120W WILL MOVE WESTWARD
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, SUPPORTING ACTIVE CONVECTION ALONG WITH
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
TO MIDWEEK, HIGH PRESSURE WILL FURTHER BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN
WATERS, TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SUPPORT FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS OVER MUCH OF THE
TRADEWIND BELT WEST OF 120W. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FAR
NW WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK, SUPPORTING ROUGH SEAS MON NIGHT INTO TUE.
DELGADO
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