762
AXPZ20 KNHC 140916
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN DEC 14 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0855 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE
NW GULF OF AMERICA AND WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
AND THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH WILL USHER IN THE
NEXT GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE-FORCE GAP WIND EVENT. FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS OVER THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION WILL INCREASE TO GALE
FORCE THIS EVENING. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO
SHIFT EASTWARD AND WEAKEN MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LOOSEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DIMINISH WINDS BELOW GALE FORCE BY TUE
MORNING. ROUGH SEAS WILL DEVELOP SUN NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
TUE NIGHT, PEAKING AROUND 14 FT (4.5 M). CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT WEBSITE: HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML
FOR MORE INFORMATION.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF COSTA RICA NEAR
09N85W TO 08N100W TO 11N116W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM
15N118W TO 08N125W. THE ITCZ STRETCHES FROM 08N125W TO BEYOND
07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED FROM 06N TO 12N AND BETWEEN 89W AND 110W AND ALSO FROM
07N TO 16N AND BETWEEN 115W AND 130W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. PLEASE
SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SUSTAINS
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ACROSS THE
BASIN. IN THE REMAINDER OF THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS, A 1021 MB
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM POSITIONED NEAR 30N131W EXTENDS A RIDGE TO
THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. GENTLE TO MODERATE NW-N WINDS AND
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE FOUND IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA, GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND OFF CABO CORRIENTES. A RECENT
SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS ALSO SHOWED LOCALLY FRESH NW-N WINDS
OFF PUNTA EUGENIA AND CABO CORRIENTES. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL INCREASE TO GALE-FORCE THIS EVENING. THE
GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TUE. ELSEWHERE,
MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE OFFSHORE
WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
LATEST SATELLITE-DERIVED WIND DATA SHOWED MODERATE TO FRESH
EASTERLY WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN. SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE 4-6 FT. FARTHER
SOUTH, GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE
PRESENT SOUTH OF 05N. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR LIGHTER WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN
WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH MIDWEEK. ROUGH
SEAS WILL DEVELOP IN THE FAR OFFSHORE WATERS OF GUATEMALA MON
INTO TUE DUE TO THE TEHUANTEPEC GALE FORCE GAP EVENT. MODERATE
TO LOCALLY FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE GULF OF PANAMA
THIS UPCOMING WEEK. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR 30N131W DOMINATES THE
NORTHERN WATERS OF THE TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND LOWER PRESSURES ASSOCIATED WITH
A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 122W AND THE ITCZ RESULTS IN MODERATE TO
FRESH EASTERLY WINDS FROM 08N TO 21N AND WEST OF 117W. THIS WAS
CONFIRMED BY A RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS. SEAS IN
THESE WATERS ARE 6-8 FT. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO PRODUCING A
LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MARINERS CAN EXPECT
STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS NEAR THE STRONGER STORMS.
MEANWHILE, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS ARE OCCURRING SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ. GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE OVER THE
DISCUSSION WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 122W WILL MOVE WESTWARD
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, SUPPORTING ACTIVE CONVECTION ALONG WITH
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS. EARLY THIS WEEK TO
MIDWEEK, HIGH PRESSURE WILL FURTHER BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN
WATERS, TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SUPPORT FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS OVER MUCH OF THE
TRADEWIND BELT WEST OF 120W. IN THE EASTERN WATERS, FRESH TO
STRONG EASTERLY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE GALE-
FORCE GAP WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL SPREAD
WESTWARD TO 107W AND NORTH OF 10N MON INTO TUE. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE FAR NW WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK, SUPPORTING ROUGH
SEAS MON NIGHT INTO TUE.
DELGADO
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