575
AXPZ20 KNHC 142205 CCA
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SUN DEC 14 2025
CORRECTED REMAINDER OF THE AREA
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE
NW GULF OF AMERICA. IT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
AND THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH WILL USHER IN THE
NEXT GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE-FORCE GAP WIND EVENT. FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS OVER THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION WILL INCREASE TO GALE
FORCE THIS EVENING. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO SHIFT
EASTWARD AND WEAKEN ON MON NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
SLACKENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT WILL LEAD TO WINDS
DIMINISHING BELOW GALE FORCE DURING TUE MORNING. ROUGH SEAS WILL
DEVELOP TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUE NIGHT, PEAKING AROUND
14 FT (4.5 M). CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT WEBSITE: HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML
FOR MORE INFORMATION.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF COSTA RICA
NEAR 10N85W TO 09N110W TO 10N120W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS TO THE
WEST OF A TROUGH THAT IS ANALYZED FROM 16N119W TO 09N124W AT
10N125W AND CONTINUES TO 08N135W AND TO BEYOND 09N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 06N TO 09N
BETWEEN 78W-83W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM
NORTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 95W-99W, WITHIN 60 NM SOUTH OF THE
TROUGH BETWEEN 105W-108W, ALSO BETWEEN 131W-138W, AND WITHIN 60
NM NORTH OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 127W-135W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION.
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SUPPORTS
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ACROSS THE
BASIN. ELSEWHERE, ACROSS THE REST OF THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE
WATERS, A 1020 MB HIGH CENTER IS ANALYZED NEAR 29N132W. AN
ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH TO THE REVILLAGIGEDO
ISLANDS. THE RELATED GRADIENT IS GENERALLY ALLOWING FOR GENTLE
TO MODERATE NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS
OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, GULF OF CALIFORNIA
AND OFF CABO CORRIENTES. AN OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE
DATA PASS INDICATED FRESH NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS OFF PUNTA
EUGENIA AND CABO CORRIENTES. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THESE WINDS
MAY HAVE DIMINISHED SLIGHTLY. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL INCREASE TO GALE-FORCE THIS EVENING. THESE
GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TUE. ELSEWHERE,
MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING NEXT WEEK. FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
LATEST SATELLITE-DERIVED WIND DATA SHOWED MODERATE TO FRESH
EASTERLY WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN. SEAS OVER THESE WATERS ARE 4 TO 6 FT.
FARTHER SOUTH, GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS ARE PRESENT SOUTH OF 05N. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR LIGHTER
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN
WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH MIDWEEK. ROUGH
SEAS WILL DEVELOP IN THE FAR OFFSHORE WATERS OF GUATEMALA MON
INTO TUE DUE TO THE TEHUANTEPEC GALE FORCE GAP EVENT. MODERATE
TO LOCALLY FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE GULF OF PANAMA
THIS UPCOMING WEEK. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A 1020 MB HIGH CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 29N132W. THIS FEATURES
IS PRESENTLY CONTROLLING THE WIND REGIME OVER THE NORTHERN
WATERS OF THE TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE HIGH AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED TO A
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 16N119W TO 09N124W IS BRINGING
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ROUGHLY FROM 08N TO 20N AND WEST
OF ABOUT 119W AS WAS CONFIRMED BY AN OVERNIGHT SATELLITE DATA
PASS. SEAS OVER THESE WATERS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 6 TO 8 FT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION LOCATED TO
THE WEST OF THE TROUGH FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND
128W. MARINERS CAN EXPECT STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HIGHER SEAS NEAR
AND IN THIS AREA OF CONVECTION. MEANWHILE, MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE OCCURRING SOUTH OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE OVER THE DISCUSSION WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL MOVE WESTWARD
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, SUPPORTING ACTIVE CONVECTION ALONG WITH
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILD FURTHER OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS INTO THE MIDDLE PORTION
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK LEADING TO A TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT THAT WILL CAUSE FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY WINDS
AND ROUGH SEAS OVER MUCH OF THE TRADEWIND BELT WEST OF 120W. OVER
THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA, FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE GALE-FORCE GAP WIND EVENT IN THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL SPREAD WESTWARD TO ABOUT 106W FROM 09N TO
11N MON THROUGH TUE. MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHWEST WINDS ALONG WITH
SEAS TO 8 FT MAY APPROACH THE NW CORNER.
AGUIRRE
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