029
AXPZ20 KNHC 150247
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON DEC 15 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0230 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER MEXICO AND THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC
MONSOON TROUGH WILL LEAD TO GALE-FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH TUE MORNING. BY THAT TIME,
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND WEAKEN. ROUGH
SEAS WILL ARE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS, PEAKING 14 FT
ON MON NIGHT.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT WEBSITE: HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML
FOR MORE INFORMATION.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 07N101W TO 08N120W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 12N125W TO 07N128W. THE ITCZ
THEN EXTENDS TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH FROM 08N131W TO BEYOND
06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND E OF 89W, AND FROM 07N-13N BETWEEN
92W-113W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. PLEASE
SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
A 1022 MB HIGH CENTER IS ANALYZED NEAR 30N130W. ITS ASSOCIATED
RIDGE EXTENDS TO NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THE RELATED
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ALLOWING FOR GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHWEST
TO NORTH WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS OVER THE MEXICAN
OFFSHORE WATERS N OF 16N. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND SLIGHT
SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE BETWEEN 13N TO 16N OUTSIDE OF THE
TEHUANTEPEC AREA.
FOR THE FORECAST, GALE-FORCE WINDS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY TUE. ELSEWHERE, MAINLY GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING NEXT WEEK. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE BY THE MIDDLE PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS WELL.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS PREVAIL IN THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN NORTH OF THE
CARIBBEAN. MODERATE SEAS IS NOTED IN THESE WATERS. FARTHER
SOUTH, GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE
PRESENT SOUTH OF 05N. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR LIGHTER WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PULSING FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH
MIDWEEK. ROUGH SEAS WILL DEVELOP IN THE FAR OFFSHORE WATERS OF
GUATEMALA MON INTO TUE DUE TO THE TEHUANTEPEC GALE FORCE GAP
EVENT. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE GULF
OF PANAMA THIS UPCOMING WEEK. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT
TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A 1022 MB HIGH CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 30N130W. THIS FEATURE IS
CONTROLLING THE WIND REGIME OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS OF THE
TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH
AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURES ASSOCIATED TO A TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM 12N125W TO 07N128W IS BRINGING MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WINDS FROM 08N TO 19N AND W OF 123W AS WAS CONFIRMED BY
LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA. ROUGH SEAS PREVAIL OVER THESE WATERS
IN MIXED SWELL ALONG WITH WIND GENERATED SEAS. ELSEWHERE,
MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE
OCCURRING SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ. GENTLE TO
MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE SOUTH OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH, AND MODERATE TO FRESH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE SOUTH
OF THE ITCZ. MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL OVER THESE WATERS IN
SOUTHWEST SWELL EAST OF 99W, AND IN MERGING NORTHWEST AND
SOUTHWEST SWELL WEST OF 99W.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE WESTWARD THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WHILE WEAKENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD FURTHER OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS INTO THE
MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK LEADING TO A TIGHTENING OF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT WILL CAUSE FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS
AND ROUGH SEAS OVER MUCH OF THE TRADEWIND BELT WEST OF 120W.
OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA, FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS
AND ROUGH SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE GALE-FORCE GAP WIND EVENT IN
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL SPREAD WESTWARD TO NEAR 106W FROM
09N TO 11N MON THROUGH TUE. MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHWEST WINDS
ALONG WITH ROUGH SEAS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF
THE AREA MON NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUE.
ERA
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