949
AXPZ20 KNHC 150908
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON DEC 15 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0830 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER MEXICO AND THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC
MONSOON TROUGH WILL LEAD TO GALE-FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH TUE MORNING. BY THAT TIME,
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND WEAKEN. ROUGH
SEAS WILL ARE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS, PEAKING 14 FT
ON MON NIGHT.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT WEBSITE: HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML
FOR MORE INFORMATION.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 06N102W TO 08N113W. THE
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM THAT POINT TO 08N126W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
ANALYZED FROM 13N126W TO 08N129W. THE ITCZ THEN RESUMES W OF THE
TROUGH FROM 08N131W TO BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND E
OF 98W, AND FROM 07N-12N BETWEEN 101W-113W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. PLEASE
SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
A 1025 MB HIGH CENTER IS ANALYZED NEAR 30N130W. ITS ASSOCIATED
RIDGE EXTENDS TO NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THE RELATED
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ALLOWING FOR GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHWEST TO
NORTH WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS OVER THE MEXICAN
OFFSHORE WATERS N OF 16N. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND SLIGHT
SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE BETWEEN 13N TO 18N OUTSIDE OF THE
TEHUANTEPEC AREA.
FOR THE FORECAST, GALE-FORCE WINDS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY TUE. ELSEWHERE, MAINLY GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE BY THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK AS WELL.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS PREVAIL IN THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN NORTH OF THE
CARIBBEAN. MODERATE SEAS IS NOTED IN THESE WATERS. FARTHER
SOUTH, GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE
PRESENT SOUTH OF 05N. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR LIGHTER WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PULSING FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH
MIDWEEK. ROUGH SEAS WILL DEVELOP IN THE FAR OFFSHORE WATERS OF
GUATEMALA THROUGH TUE DUE TO THE TEHUANTEPEC GALE FORCE GAP
EVENT. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE GULF
OF PANAMA THIS WEEK. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A 1025 MB HIGH CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 30N130W. THIS FEATURE IS
CONTROLLING THE WIND REGIME OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS OF THE
TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH
AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURES ASSOCIATED TO A TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM 13N126W TO 08N129W IS BRINGING MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WINDS FROM 08N TO 19N AND W OF 125W. ROUGH SEAS PREVAIL
OVER THESE WATERS IN MIXED SWELL ALONG WITH WIND GENERATED SEAS.
ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
ARE OCCURRING SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ. GENTLE TO
MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE SOUTH OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH, AND MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE SOUTH OF THE
ITCZ. MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL OVER THESE WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE WESTWARD THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WHILE WEAKENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD FURTHER OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS INTO THE MIDDLE PORTION OF
THE WEEK LEADING TO A TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT
WILL CAUSE FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS OVER
MUCH OF THE TRADEWIND BELT WEST OF 120W. OVER THE EASTERN PART OF
THE AREA, FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE GALE-FORCE GAP WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC WILL SPREAD WESTWARD TO NEAR 106W FROM 08N TO 12N
THROUGH TUE.
ERA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page