536
AXPZ20 KNHC 151446
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON DEC 15 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1400 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER MEXICO AND THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC
MONSOON TROUGH WILL LEAD TO GALE-FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH TUE MORNING. WINDS MAY
PEAK JUST ABOUT 40 KT THIS EVENING. BY TUE AFTERNOON, THE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND WEAKEN. ROUGH SEAS WILL
ARE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS, PEAKING AROUND 15 FT
TONIGHT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08.5N78W TO 08N97W TO 06N103W TO
08N113W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM THAT POINT TO 08N128.5W. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 14N126W TO 08N129.5W. THE ITCZ
THEN RESUMES W OF THE TROUGH FROM 08N130.5W TO BEYOND 04.5N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 06N TO 11N BETWEEN
77W AND 100W, FROM 09N TO 13.5N BETWEEN 102W AND 116W, AND FROM
07N TO 18.5N BETWEEN 121W AND 133.5W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. PLEASE
SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
A 1024 MB HIGH CENTER IS ANALYZED JUST N OF THE AREA NEAR
32N128W. ITS ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDS TO NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO
ISLANDS. THE RELATED PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ALLOWING FOR GENTLE TO
MODERATE NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS
OVER THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS N OF 17N. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE BETWEEN 13N TO 17N
OUTSIDE OF THE TEHUANTEPEC AREA.
FOR THE FORECAST, GALE-FORCE WINDS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUE MORNING. ELSEWHERE, MAINLY GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL
DEVELOP MAINLY JUST BEYOND THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE BY THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. MODERATE TO
FRESH WINDS WILL PULSE NEAR CABO CORRIENTES DURING THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS MAY RETURN IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS PREVAIL IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN N OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH LOWER
PRESSURES ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN COSTA RICA AND
PANAMA. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE N OF 08N. MODERATE
SEAS IS NOTED IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. S OF 08N, GENTLE TO
MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL, EXCEPT SLIGHT
SEAS NEARSHORE COLOMBIA AND EASTERN PANAMA. ACTIVE CONVECTION IS
PRESENT NEAR PANAMA AND COSTA RICA AS DESCRIBED ABOVE WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS POSSIBLE.
FOR THE FORECAST, BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PULSING FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH
MIDWEEK, POSSIBLY RETURNING FRI NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ROUGH
SEAS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN THE FAR OFFSHORE WATERS OF
GUATEMALA THROUGH TUE DUE TO A GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE-FORCE GAP
EVENT. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE GULF
OF PANAMA THIS WEEK. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A 1024 MB HIGH CENTER IS ANALYZED JUST N OF THE AREA NEAR
32N128W. ITS ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDS TO NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO
ISLANDS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND RELATIVELY
LOWER PRESSURES ASSOCIATED TO A TROUGH THAT EXTENDS IN THE
W-CENTRAL WATERS AS DESCRIBED ABOVE IS BRINGING MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADE WINDS FROM 09N TO 209N AND W OF 120W OR SO. ROUGH
SEAS PREVAIL OVER THESE WATERS IN MIXED SWELL ALONG WITH WIND
GENERATED SEAS. MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE
OCCURRING S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ. MAINLY GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE OPEN WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE W-CENTRAL WATERS WILL
MOVE WESTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WHILE
WEAKENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FURTHER OVER THE NORTHERN
WATERS INTO THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK LEADING TO A
TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT WILL CAUSE FRESH TO
STRONG EASTERLY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS OVER MUCH OF THE TRADEWIND
BELT WEST OF 120W. OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA, FRESH TO
STRONG EASTERLY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE GALE-
FORCE GAP WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL SPREAD
WESTWARD TO NEAR 106W FROM 08N TO 12N THROUGH TUE. SEAS WILL
BUILD TO ROUGH NEAR 30N140W LATER TODAY THROUGH TUE NIGHT IN NW
SWELL. MEANWHILE, A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LEADING TO FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS IN THE N-CENTRAL WATERS MID-WEEK.
LEWITSKY
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