375
AXPZ20 KNHC 160848
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE DEC 16 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0830 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER MEXICO AND THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC
MONSOON TROUGH IS SUSTAINING GALE-FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WHICH ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS MORNING. BY THIS AFTERNOON, THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT EASTWARD AND WEAKEN. ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS, PEAKING TO 16 FT.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 07N122W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM THAT POINT TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05N TO 10N AND E OF 86W, AND FROM 06N
TO 12N BETWEEN 105W AND 123W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. PLEASE
SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
A 1027 MB HIGH CENTER IS ANALYZED JUST N OF THE AREA NEAR
32N130W. ITS ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDS TO NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO
ISLANDS. THE RELATED PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ALLOWING FOR GENTLE TO
MODERATE NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS
OVER THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS N OF 20N. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE FROM 13N TO 20N OUTSIDE
OF THE TEHUANTEPEC AREA.
FOR THE FORECAST, GALE-FORCE WINDS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL DEVELOP
MAINLY JUST BEYOND THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE
BY THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WILL
PULSE NEAR CABO CORRIENTES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. FRESH
TO AT LEAST STRONG GAP WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS MAY RETURN IN THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS PREVAIL IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN N OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH LOWER
PRESSURES ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN COSTA RICA AND
PANAMA. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE ELSEWHERE N
OF 07N. S OF 07N, GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL, EXCEPT SLIGHT SEAS NEARSHORE COLOMBIA AND
EASTERN PANAMA. ACTIVE CONVECTION IS PRESENT NEAR PANAMA AND
COSTA RICA AS DESCRIBED ABOVE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS
POSSIBLE.
FOR THE FORECAST, BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE CARIBBEAN AND
LOWER PRESSURES NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
PULSING FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH MIDWEEK, POSSIBLY RETURNING
FRI NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ROUGH SEAS IN THE FAR OFFSHORE
WATERS OF GUATEMALA WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUE DUE TO A GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC GALE-FORCE GAP EVENT. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE GULF OF PANAMA THIS WEEK. GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A 1027 MB HIGH CENTER IS ANALYZED JUST N OF THE AREA NEAR
32N130W. ITS ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDS TO NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO
ISLANDS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND RELATIVELY
LOWER PRESSURES NEAR THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH IS BRINGING MODERATE
TO FRESH TRADE WINDS FROM 09N TO 20N AND W OF 120W OR SO,
LOCALLY STRONG BETWEEN 128W-130W FROM 10N-15N. ROUGH SEAS
PREVAIL OVER THESE WATERS IN MIXED LONG PERIOD SWELL ALONG WITH
SHORTER PERIOD WIND GENERATED SEAS. MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS ARE OCCURRING S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ.
MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE OPEN WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FURTHER OVER THE
NORTHERN WATERS INTO THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK LEADING TO A
TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT WILL CAUSE FRESH TO
STRONG EASTERLY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS OVER MUCH OF THE TRADEWIND
BELT WEST OF 120W. OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA, FRESH TO
STRONG EASTERLY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE GALE-
FORCE GAP WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL SPREAD
WESTWARD TO NEAR 106W FROM 08N TO 12N THROUGH TUE. SEAS WILL
BUILD TO ROUGH NEAR 30N140W THROUGH TONIGHT IN W-NW SWELL.
MEANWHILE, A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LEADING TO FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS IN THE N-CENTRAL WATERS MID-WEEK. MARINE CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE OVERALL DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SLACKENS.
ERA
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