544
AXPZ20 KNHC 161531
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE DEC 16 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER MEXICO AND THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC
MONSOON TROUGH IS SUSTAINING GALE-FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WHICH ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BELOW
GALE-FORCE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN
TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND WEAKEN. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL THEN
PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING ALONG WITH SUBSIDING
ROUGH SEAS. PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 03N92W TO 08N121W.
THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM THAT POINT TO 08N130W TO BEYOND 04.5N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 06.5N TO 08.5N
BETWEEN 85W AND 91W, FROM 09N TO 12.5N BETWEEN 92W AND 102.5W,
AND FROM 06N TO 14N BETWEEN 103W AND 136W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. PLEASE
SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
A 1026 MB HIGH CENTER IS ANALYZED JUST N OF THE AREA NEAR
32N130W. ITS ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDS TO NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO
ISLANDS. THE RELATED PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ALLOWING FOR GENTLE TO
MODERATE NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS
OVER THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS N OF 20N. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE FROM 13N TO 20N OUTSIDE
OF THE TEHUANTEPEC AREA.
FOR THE FORECAST, GALE-FORCE WINDS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
WILL DIMINISH BY THE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL DEVELOP
MAINLY JUST BEYOND THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE
BY THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WILL
PULSE NEAR CABO CORRIENTES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. FRESH
TO AT LEAST STRONG GAP WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS MAY RETURN IN THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS PREVAIL IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN N OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH LOWER
PRESSURES ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN COSTA RICA AND
PANAMA. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE ELSEWHERE N
OF 07N. S OF 07N, GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL, EXCEPT SLIGHT SEAS NEARSHORE COLOMBIA AND
EASTERN PANAMA.
FOR THE FORECAST, BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE CARIBBEAN AND
LOWER PRESSURES NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
PULSING FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH MIDWEEK, POSSIBLY RETURNING
FRI NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ROUGH SEAS IN THE FAR OFFSHORE
WATERS OF GUATEMALA WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY DUE TO A
DIMINISHING GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE-FORCE GAP EVENT. MODERATE
TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE GULF OF PANAMA THIS
WEEK. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A 1026 MB HIGH CENTER IS ANALYZED JUST N OF THE AREA NEAR 32N130W.
ITS ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDS TO NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND RELATIVELY LOWER
PRESSURES NEAR THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH IS BRINGING MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADE WINDS FROM 08N TO 21N AND W OF 120W OR SO, LOCALLY
STRONG BETWEEN 127W AND 140W FROM 10N TO 20N. ROUGH SEAS PREVAIL
OVER THESE WATERS IN MIXED LONG PERIOD SWELL ALONG WITH SHORTER
PERIOD WIND GENERATED SEAS. MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS ARE OCCURRING S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ. MAINLY
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE OPEN WATERS, EXCEPT LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS NEAR
30N140W.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FURTHER OVER THE
NORTHERN WATERS INTO THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK LEADING TO A
TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT WILL CAUSE FRESH TO
STRONG EASTERLY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS OVER MUCH OF THE TRADEWIND
BELT WEST OF 120W. OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA, FRESH TO
STRONG EASTERLY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DIMINISHING GALE-FORCE GAP WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
WILL SPREAD WESTWARD TO NEAR 106W FROM 08N TO 12N THROUGH TODAY.
SEAS TO ROUGH NEAR 30N140W IN W-NW SWELL WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP
OFFSHORE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LEADING TO FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS IN THE N-CENTRAL WATERS MID-WEEK. MARINE CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE OVERALL DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS.
LEWITSKY
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