947
AXPZ20 KNHC 162112
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE DEC 16 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1900 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08.5N83W TO 07N94W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM THAT POINT TO 09N115W TO 08.5N125W TO BEYOND
07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 06N TO 09N
BETWEEN 84W AND 90W, FROM 07N TO 13.5N BETWEEN 100W AND 117W, AND
FROM 07N TO 14N BETWEEN 119W AND 135W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A 1028 MB HIGH CENTER IS ANALYZED JUST N OF THE AREA NEAR
32N130W. ITS ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDS TO NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO
ISLANDS. THE RELATED PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ALLOWING FOR GENTLE TO
MODERATE NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS
OVER THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS N OF 20N INCLUDING THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE FROM 12N TO 20N OUTSIDE OF THE TEHUANTEPEC AREA. IN THE
REGION OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW
GALE-FORCE BUT ARE FRESH TO NEAR GALE AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH
RESIDUAL SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG N-NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS IN
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY WED. FRESH TO
AT LEAST STRONG GAP WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS MAY RETURN IN THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ELSEWHERE,
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS WILL DEVELOP MAINLY JUST BEYOND THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE WED THROUGH THU. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WILL
PULSE NEAR CABO CORRIENTES TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH NORTHEAST WINDS PREVAIL IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION PER
RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN N OF
THE CARIBBEAN WITH LOWER PRESSURES ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER
SOUTHERN COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS ARE ELSEWHERE N OF 07N, EXCEPT ROUGH SEAS WELL
OFFSHORE GUATEMALA DUE TO A DIMINISHING GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP
WIND EVENT. S OF 07N, GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL, EXCEPT SLIGHT SEAS NEARSHORE COLOMBIA AND
EASTERN PANAMA.
FOR THE FORECAST, BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE CARIBBEAN AND
LOWER PRESSURES NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL SUPPORT PULSING
FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ACROSS THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH WED MORNING, THEN MODERATE TO FRESH
THROUGH FRI, THEN FRESH TO STRONG AGAIN FRI NIGHT INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. ROUGH SEAS IN THE FAR OFFSHORE WATERS OF GUATEMALA WILL
SUBSIDE TONIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PULSE IN
THE GULF OF PANAMA THIS WEEK. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A 1028 MB HIGH CENTER IS ANALYZED JUST N OF THE AREA NEAR
32N130W. ITS ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDS TO NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO
ISLANDS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND RELATIVELY
LOWER PRESSURES NEAR THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH IS BRINGING MODERATE
TO FRESH TRADE WINDS FROM 08N TO 23N AND W OF 120W OR SO, LOCALLY
STRONG PER RECENT ASCAT DATA. ROUGH SEAS PREVAIL OVER THESE
WATERS PER RECENT ALTIMETER DATA, IN MIXED LONG PERIOD SWELL
ALONG WITH SHORTER PERIOD WIND GENERATED SEAS. MODERATE SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE OCCURRING S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
AND ITCZ. MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE OPEN WATERS, EXCEPT LOCALLY
ROUGH SEAS NEAR 30N140W.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN
WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK LEADING TO
CONTINUING FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS OVER
MUCH OF THE TRADEWIND BELT WEST OF 120W. OVER THE EASTERN PART OF
THE AREA, FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DIMINISHING GALE-FORCE GAP WIND EVENT IN THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL SPREAD WESTWARD TO NEAR 106W FROM 08N TO
12N THROUGH THIS EVENING. SEAS TO ROUGH NEAR 30N140W IN W-NW
SWELL WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
LEADING TO FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS IN THE N-CENTRAL
WATERS EARLY WED. MARINE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE OVERALL
DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS.
LEWITSKY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page