035
AXPZ20 KNHC 170307
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED DEC 17 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0230 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 09N103W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM THAT POINT TO 10N126W TO BEYOND 07N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN
85W AND 92W, AND FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN 110W AND 135W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A 1026 MB HIGH CENTER IS ANALYZED JUST N OF THE AREA NEAR
32N132W. ITS ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDS TO NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO
ISLANDS. THE RELATED PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ALLOWING FOR GENTLE TO
MODERATE NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS
OVER THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS N OF 20N INCLUDING THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE FROM 12N TO 20N OUTSIDE OF THE TEHUANTEPEC AREA. IN THE
REGION OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW
GALE-FORCE BUT ARE FRESH TO NEAR GALE AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH
RESIDUAL SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG N-NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS IN
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY WED. THESE
CONDITIONS MAY RETURN BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL DEVELOP MAINLY JUST BEYOND THE
OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE WED THROUGH THU.
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WILL PULSE NEAR CABO CORRIENTES TONIGHT
THROUGH WED NIGHT.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH NORTHEAST WINDS PREVAIL IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN N OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH LOWER PRESSURES
ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN COSTA RICA AND PANAMA.
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE ELSEWHERE N OF 07N,
EXCEPT ROUGH SEAS WELL OFFSHORE GUATEMALA DUE TO A DIMINISHING
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT. S OF 07N, GENTLE TO MODERATE
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL, EXCEPT SLIGHT SEAS
NEARSHORE COLOMBIA AND EASTERN PANAMA.
FOR THE FORECAST, BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE CARIBBEAN AND
LOWER PRESSURES NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL SUPPORT PULSING
FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ACROSS THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH WED MORNING, THEN MODERATE TO FRESH
THROUGH FRI, THEN FRESH TO STRONG AGAIN FRI NIGHT INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. ROUGH SEAS IN THE FAR OFFSHORE WATERS OF GUATEMALA WILL
SUBSIDE TONIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PULSE IN
THE GULF OF PANAMA THIS WEEK. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A 1026 MB HIGH CENTER IS ANALYZED JUST N OF THE AREA NEAR
32N132W. ITS ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDS TO NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO
ISLANDS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND RELATIVELY
LOWER PRESSURES NEAR THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH IS BRINGING MODERATE
TO FRESH TRADE WINDS FROM 08N TO 24N AND W OF 120W. ROUGH SEAS
PREVAIL OVER THESE WATERS PER RECENT ALTIMETER DATA, IN MIXED
LONG PERIOD SWELL ALONG WITH SHORTER PERIOD WIND GENERATED SEAS.
MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE OCCURRING S OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ. MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE OPEN WATERS,
EXCEPT LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS NEAR 30N140W.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN
WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK LEADING TO CONTINUING
FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS OVER MUCH OF THE
TRADEWIND BELT WEST OF 120W. OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA,
FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DIMINISHING GALE-FORCE GAP WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
WILL SPREAD WESTWARD TO NEAR 106W FROM 08N TO 12N THROUGH TONIGHT.
SEAS TO ROUGH NEAR 30N140W IN W-NW SWELL WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
DEVELOP OFFSHORE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LEADING TO FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS IN THE N-CENTRAL WATERS EARLY WED. MARINE
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE OVERALL DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS.
ERA
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