521
AXPZ20 KNHC 170916
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED DEC 17 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0830 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 09N103W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM THAT POINT TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05N TO 13N BETWEEN 87W AND 110W, AND
FROM 07N TO 13N BETWEEN 111W AND 124W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A 1026 MB HIGH CENTER IS ANALYZED JUST N OF THE AREA NEAR
31N133W. ITS ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDS TO NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO
ISLANDS. THE RELATED PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ALLOWING FOR GENTLE TO
MODERATE NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS
OVER THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS N OF 18N INCLUDING THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE FROM 12N TO 18N OUTSIDE OF THE TEHUANTEPEC AREA. IN
THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION, FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS PREVAIL WITH
MODERATE TO ROUGH RESIDUAL SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG N-NE WINDS AND MODERATE TO
ROUGH RESIDUAL SEAS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL PERSIST THIS
MORNING. THESE CONDITIONS MAY RETURN BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TODAY. FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS WILL DEVELOP MAINLY JUST BEYOND THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THU.
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WILL PULSE NEAR CABO CORRIENTES THROUGH
TONIGHT.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH NORTHEAST WINDS PREVAIL IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN N OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH LOWER PRESSURES
ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN COSTA RICA AND PANAMA.
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE ELSEWHERE N OF 05N,
EXCEPT ROUGH SEAS WELL OFFSHORE GUATEMALA DUE TO A DIMINISHING
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT. S OF 05N, GENTLE TO MODERATE
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL, EXCEPT SLIGHT SEAS
NEARSHORE COLOMBIA AND EASTERN PANAMA.
FOR THE FORECAST, BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE CARIBBEAN AND
LOWER PRESSURES NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL SUPPORT PULSING
FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ACROSS THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH THIS MORNING, THEN MODERATE TO FRESH
THROUGH FRI. FRESH TO STRONG WILL DEVELOP AGAIN FRI NIGHT AND
PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL PULSE IN THE GULF OF PANAMA THIS WEEK. GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A 1026 MB HIGH CENTER IS ANALYZED JUST N OF THE AREA NEAR
31N133W. ITS ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDS TO NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO
ISLANDS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND RELATIVELY
LOWER PRESSURES NEAR THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH IS BRINGING FRESH TO
STRONG TRADE WINDS FROM 10N TO 20N AND W OF 126W. MODERATE TO
FRESH NE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 06N-25N AND W OF 110W. ROUGH
SEAS PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS W OF 130W PER RECENT ALTIMETER
DATA, IN MIXED LONG PERIOD SWELL ALONG WITH SHORTER PERIOD WIND
GENERATED SEAS. MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE
OCCURRING S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ. MAINLY GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE OPEN WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN
WATERS THROUGH TODAY LEADING TO CONTINUING FRESH TO STRONG
EASTERLY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS OVER MUCH OF THE TRADEWIND BELT
WEST OF 120W. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LEADING TO FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS IN THE N-CENTRAL WATERS TODAY. MARINE CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE OVERALL DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SLACKENS.
ERA
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