364
AXPZ20 KNHC 172006
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED DEC 17 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1900 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N85W TO 09N94W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 09N94W TO 11N101W TO 08.5N120W TO BEYOND
07.5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 04N TO
08.5N BETWEEN 77W AND 83W, FROM 05N TO 11N BETWEEN 87W AND 95W,
AND FROM 07N TO 12N BETWEEN 110W AND 117W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A 1028 MB HIGH CENTER IS ANALYZED JUST N OF THE AREA NEAR
31.5N130.5W WITH THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING TO NEAR THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THE RELATED PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ALLOWING
FOR GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS OVER THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS INCLUDING THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA, AS NOTED BY RECENT ASCAT-A AND B PASSES. IN THE
FAR OUTER BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE WATERS AND BEYOND, FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS ARE PRESENT DUE TO A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT MAINLY N OF THE AREA WITH 1025 MB HIGH
PRESSURE LOCATED INLAND OF THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA AND
TROUGHING JUST TO THE S OVER THE CHANNEL ISLANDS.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WILL PULSE NEAR CABO
CORRIENTES THROUGH TONIGHT, THEN AGAIN THIS WEEKEND. SIMILAR
WINDS WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK, ALONG WITH LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS DUE TO A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT MAINLY N OF THE THE AREA. FRESH TO STRONG GAP
WINDS AND ASSOCIATED ROUGH SEAS MAY DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC FRI THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN THE AREA. MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE FORECAST ELSEWHERE
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH NE WINDS PREVAIL IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO EXTENDING DOWNWIND
TO NEAR 09N92.5W WITH AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN CENTRAL
AMERICA AND LOWER PRESSURES ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER
SOUTHERN COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS ARE ELSEWHERE N OF 06N. S OF 06N, GENTLE TO
MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL PER EARLIER
ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA, EXCEPT SLIGHT SEAS NEARSHORE COLOMBIA,
EASTERN PANAMA, AND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA PER AN ALTIMETER PASS.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
PRESENT OFFSHORE COLOMBIA NORTHWARD PER CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE OVER INTERIOR NORTHERN CENTRAL
AMERICA AND LOWER PRESSURES NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL SUPPORT
PULSING MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH FRI WHILE EXTENDING WELL
DOWNWIND TO THE FAR OUTER OFFSHORE WATERS OF EL SALVADOR AND
GUATEMALA, THEN INCREASING TO FRESH TO STRONG IN THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. MODERATE TO FRESH
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PULSE AT TIMES IN THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A 1028 MB HIGH CENTER IS ANALYZED JUST N OF THE AREA NEAR
31.5N130.5W WITH THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING TO NEAR THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH
AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURES NEAR THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH IS
BRINGING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS FROM 08N TO 23N AND W OF
120W WHERE SEAS ARE 6-9 FT PER MULTIPLE EARLIER ALTIMETER
PASSES. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
OFFSHORE SUPPORTS FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS
EXTENDING OVER OUR WATERS N OF 2118W AND 126.5N. GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS AND MAINLY MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE OPEN WATERS, INCLUDING S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
AND ITCZ.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN
WATERS TONIGHT LEADING TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
OVER MUCH OF THE TRADEWIND BELT WEST OF 125W. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL PERSIST OVER AND OFFSHORE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
LEADING TO FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS IN THE
N-CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. MARINE
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE OVERALL DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS DUE TO A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
30N140W. THAT FRONT MAY MOVE SE INTO THE NW AND N-CENTRAL WATERS
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS
AND ROUGH SEAS BEHIND IT.
LEWITSKY
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