106
AXPZ20 KNHC 180856
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU DEC 18 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0830 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 07N117W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 07N117W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN 93W AND 115W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A 1025 MB HIGH CENTER IS ANALYZED N OF THE AREA NEAR 33N130W
WITH THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING TO NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO
ISLANDS. THE RELATED PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ALLOWING FOR GENTLE TO
MODERATE NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS
OVER THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS INCLUDING THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. IN THE FAR OUTER BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE WATERS AND
BEYOND, FRESH NW WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE PRESENT DUE TO A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT MAINLY N OF THE AREA WITH A HIGH PRESSURE
INLAND OF THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA AND TROUGHING JUST TO THE S
OVER THE CHANNEL ISLANDS.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE
BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, ALONG WITH
ROUGH SEAS DUE TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT MAINLY N OF THE THE
AREA. SIMILAR WINDS WILL PULSE NEAR CABO CORRIENTES THIS
WEEKEND. FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS AND ASSOCIATED ROUGH SEAS WILL
DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC FRI THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS IN THE AREA. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS ARE FORECAST ELSEWHERE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH NE WINDS PREVAIL IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO EXTENDING DOWNWIND
TO NEAR 09N92W WITH AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN CENTRAL
AMERICA AND LOWER PRESSURES ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER
SOUTHERN COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS ARE ELSEWHERE N OF 06N. S OF 06N, GENTLE TO
MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL PER EARLIER
ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA, EXCEPT SLIGHT SEAS NEARSHORE COLOMBIA,
EASTERN PANAMA, AND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
PRESENT OFFSHORE COLOMBIA NORTHWARD.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE AREA WILL SUPPORT
PULSING MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH FRI WHILE EXTENDING WELL
DOWNWIND TO THE FAR OUTER OFFSHORE WATERS OF EL SALVADOR AND
GUATEMALA. BY FRI NIGHT, FRESH TO STRONG WILL PULSE IN THE GULF
OF PAPAGAYO AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. MODERATE TO FRESH
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PULSE AT TIMES IN THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A 1025 MB HIGH CENTER IS ANALYZED JUST N OF THE AREA NEAR
33N130W WITH THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING TO NEAR THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND
RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURES NEAR THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH IS
BRINGING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS FROM 07N TO 22N AND W OF
120W, WHERE SEAS ARE 6-8 FT. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND OFFSHORE SUPPORTS FRESH TO STRONG WINDS
AND ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING OVER OUR WATERS N OF 28N AND E OF 126W.
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE OPEN WATERS, INCLUDING S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
AND ITCZ.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN
WATERS TODAY LEADING TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS OVER
MUCH OF THE TRADEWIND BELT WEST OF 120W. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL PERSIST OVER AND OFFSHORE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
LEADING TO FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS IN THE N-CENTRAL
WATERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. MARINE CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE OVERALL DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS DUE TO A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
30N140W. THIS FRONT MAY MOVE SE INTO THE NW AND N-CENTRAL WATERS
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS
AND ROUGH SEAS BEHIND IT.
ERA
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