648
AXPZ20 KNHC 190804
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI DEC 19 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0800 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM FROM 09N83W TO 09N112W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 09N112W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05N TO 13N E OF 100W AND FROM 07N TO 10N
BETWEEN 120W AND 126W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
THE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N130W AND
LOWER PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE SW U.S. IS LEADING TO MODERATE
NW WINDS WELL OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE. OTHERWISE, LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL. SEAS ARE 4 TO 7 FT OFFSHORE BAJA
CALIFORNIA, 2 TO 4 FT OFF MAINLAND MEXICO, AND LESS THAN 2 FT IN
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, FOR MOST WATERS, A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SEAS INTO THE
START OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING THROUGH NE MEXICO WILL
LEAD TO INCREASING GAP WINDS IN GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH WINDS BECOMING STRONG TONIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG
GAP WINDS WILL PREVAIL IN THIS AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THEN
INCREASE TO NEAR GALE-FORCE SUN NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. ROUGH SEAS ARE ALSO LIKELY TO DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK WHERE
THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCUR.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH GAP WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE, WINDS ACROSS FORECAST WATERS ARE
MAINLY GENTLE. SEAS ARE 3 TO 6 FT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 250 NM OF THE COASTS OF EL
SALVADOR, COSTA RICA, AND PANAMA.
FOR THE FORECAST, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO ONLY
FORCE MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS ACROSS MOST FORECAST WATERS INTO
THE START OF NEXT WEEK. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA WILL DRIVE FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS MAINLY DURING
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION FROM
THIS EVENING THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. ELSEWHERE, WINDS AND SEAS
WILL BE QUIESCENT.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N130W COMBINED WITH LOWER
PRESSURE OVER THE ITCZ IS FORCING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE TO
E TRADES NORTH OF THE ITCZ. SOUTH OF THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH,
THE SE TRADES AND SW MONSOONAL WINDS ARE GENTLE TO MODERATE. SEAS
ARE 4-7 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUN. STARTING
SUN NIGHT, A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE ITCZ
NEAR 120W ENHANCING DEEP CONVECTION AND STRENGTHENING WINDS FOR
A COUPLE OF DAYS. AT THE SAME TIME, A COLD FRONT WILL TO REACH
NW WATERS NEAR 30N140W, BRINGING MODERATE TO FRESH SW AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND FRESH N WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
LARGE NW SWELL OF 8-12 FT SHOULD ALSO REACH OUR NW WATERS
BEGINNING MON.
KONARIK
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page