830
AXPZ20 KNHC 191536
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI DEC 19 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO TO 09N95W TO 09N110W.
THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 09N110W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 83W AND
106W AND FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 115W AND 134W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A RIDGE DOMINATES THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUPPORTING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW TO N WINDS N OF CABO SAN
LAZARO WITH MODERATE SEAS IN NW SWELL. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS, INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, LIGHT
TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PRIMARILY IN
NW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, FOR MOST WATERS, A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SEAS INTO THE
START OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING THROUGH NE MEXICO WILL
LEAD TO INCREASING GAP WINDS IN GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH WINDS BECOMING STRONG TONIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG
GAP WINDS WILL PREVAIL IN THIS AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THEN
INCREASE TO NEAR GALE-FORCE SUN NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. ROUGH SEAS ARE ALSO LIKELY TO DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK WHERE
THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCUR.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH GAP WINDS ARE NOTED IN THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO BY LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA. OTHERWISE, WINDS ACROSS
THE FORECAST WATERS ARE MAINLY GENTLE. SEAS ARE 3 TO 5 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO ONLY
FORCE MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS ACROSS MOST FORECAST WATERS INTO
THE START OF NEXT WEEK. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA WILL DRIVE FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS MAINLY DURING
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION FROM
THIS EVENING THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. ELSEWHERE, WINDS AND SEAS
WILL BE QUIESCENT.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A 1021 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N130W COMBINED WITH LOWER
PRESSURE OVER THE ITCZ IS FORCING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE TO
E TRADES NORTH OF THE ITCZ AND W OF 120W. SOUTH OF THE ITCZ/
MONSOON TROUGH, WINDS ARE GENTLE TO MODERATE WITH SEAS OF 4 TO 7
FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUN. STARTING
SUN NIGHT, A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE ITCZ
NEAR 120W ENHANCING DEEP CONVECTION AND STRENGTHENING WINDS FOR A
COUPLE OF DAYS. AT THE SAME TIME, A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE NW
WATERS NEAR 30N140W, BRINGING MODERATE TO FRESH SW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND FRESH N WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SWELL
EVENT WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT, BUILDING SEAS TO 8 TO 12 FT BEGINNING
ON MON.
GR
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