818
AXPZ20 KNHC 192126
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI DEC 19 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 09N95W TO 09N100W. THE
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 09N100W TO 10N115W TO BEYOND 07N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN
94W AND 103W, AND FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 114W AND 131W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATES N WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ACROSS
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, AND DOWNWIND TO NEAR 15N WITH SEAS OF 5
TO 6 FT. A WEAK RIDGE DOMINATES THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA SUPPORTING LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS, WITH MODERATE
SEAS IN NW SWELL. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS,
INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL
WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PRIMARILY IN NW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE EXPECTED IN
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. AS A RESULT, A
GALE WARNING WAS ISSUED. THEN, GALE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE,
MAINLY AT NIGHT MON NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS IN
MEXICO. ROUGH SEAS ARE ALSO LIKELY TO DEVELOP WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS. ELSEWHERE, FOR MOST WATERS, A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SEAS INTO THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH GAP WINDS ARE NOTED IN THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO BY LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA. GENTLE TO MODERATE NW
WINDS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA, AND DOWNWIND TO
ABOUT 06N. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE N OF ABOUT 06N
WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE S TO SW WINDS S OF 06N. SEAS ARE IN
GENERAL 3 TO 5 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA WILL
SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS, MAINLY DURING LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THIS
WEEKEND. IN THE GULF OF PANAMA, MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE N WINDS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ELSEWHERE, A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO ONLY FORCE MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS
WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
WATERS INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N130W COMBINED WITH LOWER PRESSURE
IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS FORCING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
NE TO E TRADES NORTH OF THE ITCZ AND W OF 120W. SOUTH OF THE
ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH, WINDS ARE ALSO MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH W
OF 120W. SEAS ARE IN GENERAL 4 TO 7 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE WATERS N OF ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH AND W
OF 110W THROUGH AT LEAST SUN, WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN WINDS AND
SEAS. STARTING SUN NIGHT, A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO FORM
ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 120W ENHANCING DEEP CONVECTION AND STRENGTHENING
WINDS FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. AT THE SAME TIME, A COLD FRONT WILL
REACH THE NW WATERS NEAR 30N140W, BRINGING MODERATE TO FRESH SW
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND FRESH N WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SWELL EVENT WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT, BUILDING
SEAS TO 8 TO 12 FT BEGINNING LATE ON MON.
GR
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