068
AXPZ20 KNHC 200339
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT DEC 20 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0255 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A
1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SE UNITED STATES AND LOWER
PRESSURES IN THE DEEP TROPICS RESULT IN FRESH TO NEAR GALE-FORCE
NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. FREQUENT GUSTS
TO GALE FORCE ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING AND SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 8-9 FT (2.5-3 M). FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. GALE
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY AT NIGHT, MON THROUGH WED AS
HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA
MADRE MOUNTAINS IN MEXICO. ROUGH SEAS ARE ALSO LIKELY TO DEVELOP
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIASFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 09N100W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 09N100W TO 10N115W TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS OBSERVED FROM 07N TO 13N AND BETWEEN 113W AND 130W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS SUPPORTING
FRESH TO NEAR GALE-FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS, ALONG WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS TO GALE FORCE AND SEAS TO 8 FT. ELSEWHERE, A 1021 MB HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED WELL WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE
EXTENDS A RIDGE TO THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE PRESENT WEST OF
GUADALUPE ISLANDS, WHILE LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
PREVAIL IN THE REST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE WATERS. LIGHT
TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE ALSO PREVALENT IN
THE REMAINDER OF THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO NEAR GALE-FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS AND
MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS
MAY PULSE TO GALE-FORCE AT NIGHT MON THROUGH WED. ELSEWHERE, FOR
MOST WATERS, A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SEAS INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
LOOKING AHEAD, A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE BY MIDWEEK POSSIBLY PRODUCING FRESH TO
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A ROBUST HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN IS FORCING
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS IN THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO, EXTENDING DOWNSTREAM TO 89W. SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE
4-7 FT. FARTHER EAST, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS
AND SEAS OF 2-4 FT ARE OCCURRING IN THE GULF OF PANAMA.
ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR LIGHTER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL
SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS, MAINLY DURING LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THIS
WEEKEND. IN THE GULF OF PANAMA, MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE N WINDS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ELSEWHERE, A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO ONLY FORCE MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS
WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
WATERS INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A 1021 MB SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 30N128W DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC. MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS OF 5-8 FT ARE NOTED OVER MUCH OF
THE BASIN WEST OF 120W AND NORTH OF THE ITCZ. EAST OF 120W AND
NORTH OF THE ITCZ AND MONSOON TROUGH, MODERATE EASTERLY BREEZES
AND SEAS ARE PREVALENT. SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ AND
WEST OF 100W, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS
OF 4-8 FT PREVAIL. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE WATERS N OF ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH AND W
OF 110W THROUGH AT LEAST SUN, WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN WINDS AND
SEAS. STARTING SUN NIGHT, A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO FORM
ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 120W ENHANCING DEEP CONVECTION AND STRENGTHENING
WINDS FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. AT THE SAME TIME, A COLD FRONT WILL
REACH THE NW WATERS NEAR 30N140W, BRINGING MODERATE TO FRESH SW
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND FRESH N WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SWELL EVENT WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT, BUILDING
SEAS TO 8 TO 12 FT BEGINNING LATE ON MON.
DELGADO
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