156
AXPZ20 KNHC 201604
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT DEC 20 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND LOWER PRESSURES
IN THE DEEP TROPICS IS INDUCING FRESH TO NEAR GALE-FORCE
NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AS WAS CONFIRMED
BY OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA. FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE
FORCE ARE EXPECTED INTO LATE THIS MORNING. SEAS ARE PEAKING
TO AROUND 8 FT (2.5 M). FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. GALE
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY AT NIGHT, MON THROUGH WED AS
HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA
MADRE MOUNTAINS IN MEXICO. ROUGH SEAS ARE ALSO LIKELY TO DEVELOP
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIASFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST COLOMBIA
SOUTHWESTWARD TO0 8N79W TO 09N90W TO 09.5N102W, WHERE IT
TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ TO 10N115W TO 10N120W TO 09N130W AND
TO BEYOND 07.5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED
WITHIN 180 NM NORTH OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 108W-115W, AND WITHIN
120 NM NORTH OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 119W-124W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SUSTAINS FRESH TO
NEAR GALE-FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE AND SEAS TO 8-9 FT OVER THE TEHUANTEPEC BASIN.
ELSEWHERE, A 1022 MB SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR 30N130W EXTENDS A
RIDGE TO THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS ARE PRESENT WEST OF GUADALUPE ISLANDS, WHILE LIGHT
TO GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL IN THE REST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE WATERS. MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS OF
2-4 FT ARE NOTED OFF CABO CORRIENTES. OVER THE THE REMAINDER
OF HE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT
TO MODERATE SEAS ARE EVIDENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO NEAR GALE-FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS AND
MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS
MAY OCCASIONALLY PULSE TO GALE-FORCE AT NIGHT FROM MON THROUGH
WED. ELSEWHERE, FOR MOST WATERS, A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SEAS INTO THE
START OF NEXT WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD, A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE BY MIDWEEK POSSIBLY
PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
THE GRADIENT RELATED TO HIGH PRESSURE THAT STRETCHES FROM THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE EASTERN GULF IS
ALLOWING FOR FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST GAP WINDS
IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THESE WINDS EXTEND DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR
90W. SEAS OVER THESE WATERS ARE 5 TO 7 FT. FARTHER EAST,
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NORTH WINDS WITH SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT ARE
IN THE GULF OF PANAMA. MODERATE OR LIGHTER WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
UNITED STATES EASTERN SEABOARD ILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS, MAINLY DURING LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
HOURS ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IN
THE GULF OF PANAMA, MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTH WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ELSEWHERE, A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO ONLY FORCE MODERATE OR WEAKER
WINDS WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST WATERS INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A 1022 MB HIGH CENTER NEAR 30N129W DOMINATES THE WIND FLOW REGIME
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC. MODERATE
TO LOCALLY FRESH NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS EXIST ACROSS MOST OF
THE BASIN WEST OF ABOUT 120W AND NORTH OF THE ITCZ. SEAS OVER
THESE WATERS ARE 5 TO 7 FT. EAST OF 120W AND NORTH OF THE ITCZ
AND MONSOON TROUGH, MODERATE EASTERLY BREEZES AND SEAS OF 4 TO 5
FT ARE PREVALENT. SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ AND WEST
OF 100W, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS OF
5 TO 6 FT PREVAIL. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS ARE EVIDENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF THE ITCZ/MONSOON
TROUGH AND WEST OF ABOUT 110W THROUGH AT LEAST SUN, WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN WINDS AND SEAS. STARTING SUN NIGHT, A SURFACE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 120W ENHANCING DEEP
CONVECTION AND STRENGTHENING WINDS FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. AT THE
SAME TIME, A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE NW WATERS NEAR 30N140W TO
BE PRECEDED AND FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO STRONG WINDS. A SWELL
EVENT WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT, BUILDING SEAS TO 8 TO 12 FT
BEGINNING LATE ON MON. BY MIDWEEK, BROAD LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF
THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE WESTERLY
WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS NORTH OF ABOUT 23N.
AGUIRRE
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