524
AXPZ20 KNHC 202336 CCA
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT DEC 20 2025
CORRECTED FORECAST FOR OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL
AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR.
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST COLOMBIA TO
09N84W TO 10N100W TO 10N109W, WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO THE
ITCZ TO 10N109W TO 10N120W TO 09.5N130W AND TO BEYOND 07.5N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN
109W-120W, AND ALSO FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 120W-124W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO HAS SLACKENED
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS ALLOWING FOR GAP NORTHERLY IN THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION TO DIMINISH TO FRESH TO STRONG SPEEDS.
SEAS ARE TO 8 FT (2.5 M) WITH THESE WINDS. ELSEWHERE, A 1022 MB
HIGH CENTER IS ANALYZED NEAR 30N126W. HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY
COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF 16N AND WEST OF 115W. LATEST
SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA INDICATES MOSTLY GENTLE TO MODERATE
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE MEXICAN WATERS, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS ALONG AND
JUST OFFSHORE CABO CORRIENTES. SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE OVER
THESE WATERS.
IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE, EXCEPT
FOR GENTLE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH IN THE NORTHERN PORTION. SEAS ARE
3 FT OR LESS IN THE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO NEAR GALE-FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS AND
MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS
MAY OCCASIONALLY PULSE TO GALE-FORCE AT NIGHT FROM MON THROUGH
WED AND POSSIBLY ON THU NIGHT. ELSEWHERE OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE
WATERS, A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO MODERATE
OR WEAKER WINDS AND SEAS INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
LOOKING AHEAD, A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE BY THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WEEK
POSSIBLY PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...CORRECTED
THE GRADIENT RELATED TO HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES IS ALLOWING FOR FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST GAP
WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AS NOTED IN A RECENT SCATTEROMETER
SATELLITE DATA PASS. THESE WINDS EXTEND DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR 90W. SEAS
OVER THESE WATERS ARE 5 TO 7 FT. FARTHER EAST, MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH NORTH WINDS WITH SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT ARE IN THE GULF OF PANAMA.
MODERATE OR LIGHTER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
UNITED STATES EASTERN SEABOARD WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS, MAINLY DURING LATE NIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY
MORNINGS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IN THE
GULF OF PANAMA, MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD, EXCEPT FOR WINDS OCCASIONALLY REACHING FRESH
SPEEDS AT NIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS OFF COLOMBIA.
ELSEWHERE, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO ONLY FORCE
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS INTO THE START OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A 1022 MB HIGH CENTER NEAR 31N126.5W DOMINATES THE WIND FLOW
REGIME OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC.
PARTIAL SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA PASSES INDICATE MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER THE WATERS NORTH OF THE ITCZ TO
NEAR 26N AND WEST IF ABOUT 120W. SEAS OVER THESE WATERS ARE 5 TO
7 FT AS SUGGESTED BY ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA PASSES. GENTLE TO
MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE EAST OF 120W ALONG WITH SEAS OF 4 TO 6
FT AS SEEN IN AN ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA PASS. GENTLE TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS ARE SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
ALONG WITH SEAS OF 4 TO 5 FT, AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE SOUTH OF THE ITCZ WITH SEAS OF
5 TO 6 FT, EXCEPT FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER SEAS SOUTH OF THE TROUGH
TO NEAR 05N AND WEST OF 138W. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE EVIDENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF THE ITCZ/MONSOON
TROUGH AND WEST OF ABOUT 110W THROUGH AT LEAST SUN, WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN WINDS AND SEAS. BEGINNING SUN NIGHT, A SURFACE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 120W AS A DEEP LAYER
TROUGH SHARPEN WHILE DIGGING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE TROPICAL
REGION. THIS FEATURE SHOULD ENHANCE DEEP CONVECTION AND
STRENGTHENING WINDS FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. AT THE SAME TIME, A
COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE NW WATERS NEAR 30N140W, TO BE PRECEDED
AND FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO STRONG WINDS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
ATTENDANT TO WEAK LOW PRESSURE THAT MAY MOVE TO THE NORTHERN
WATERS NEAR 29N135W BY EARLY ON MON. BY THE THE MIDDLE PORTION OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK, BROAD LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE WESTERLY WINDS AND
ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS NORTH OF ABOUT 23N.
AGUIRRE
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