276
AXPZ20 KNHC 210307
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN DEC 21 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0305 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN A PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN
UNITED STATES AND LOWER PRESSURES IN THE DEEP TROPICS WILL
SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH LATE THIS WORKWEEK. MODERATE TO LOCALLY
ROUGH SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE WINDS. EARLY THIS WEEK,
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE
MOUNTAINS IN MEXICO, FORCING WINDS TO PULSE TO GALE SPEEDS AT
NIGHT MON THROUGH WED, AND POSSIBLY THU. ROUGH SEAS ARE ALSO
LIKELY TO DEVELOP WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIASFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 08N97W. THE ITCZ
STRETCHES FROM 08N97W TO 10N117W TO BEYOND 07N140W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 09N TO 15N AND BETWEEN 101W
AND 125W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES EXTENDS A RIDGE
TO THE GULF OF AMERICA, SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED IN THE
AREA DESCRIBED. THE REST OF THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS ARE
DOMINATED BY A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED WELL WEST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS ARE FOUND OFF CABO CORRIENTES. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE TO
LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO PULSE TO GALE-FORCE AT NIGHT FROM MON THROUGH WED AND
POSSIBLY THU. ROUGH SEAS WILL DEVELOP WITH THESE WINDS. ELSEWHERE
OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE WATERS, A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SEAS INTO THE
EARLY PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD, A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE BY THE
MIDDLE PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WEEK POSSIBLY PRODUCING FRESH TO
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...CORRECTED
THE GRADIENT RELATED TO HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES IS ALLOWING FOR FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST
GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THESE WINDS EXTEND DOWNSTREAM
TO NEAR 89W. SEAS OVER THESE WATERS ARE 4-6 FT. FARTHER EAST,
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NORTH WINDS WITH SEAS OF 2-4 FT ARE IN
THE GULF OF PANAMA. MODERATE OR LIGHTER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
UNITED STATES EASTERN SEABOARD WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS, MAINLY DURING LATE NIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY
MORNINGS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IN THE
GULF OF PANAMA, MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD, EXCEPT FOR WINDS OCCASIONALLY REACHING FRESH
SPEEDS AT NIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS OFF COLOMBIA.
ELSEWHERE, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO ONLY FORCE
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS INTO THE START OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A COLD FRONT LOCATED WEST OF THE FAR NW WATERS IS PRODUCING
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SW WINDS AND SEAS OF 7-8 FT NORTH OF
28N AND WEST OF 133W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY
A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS. MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS OF 6-8 FT ARE OCCURRING
FROM 10N TO 20N AND WEST OF 110W. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE EVIDENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF THE ITCZ/MONSOON
TROUGH AND WEST OF ABOUT 110W THROUGH AT LEAST SUN, WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN WINDS AND SEAS. BEGINNING SUN NIGHT, A SURFACE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 120W AS A DEEP LAYER
TROUGH SHARPEN WHILE DIGGING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE TROPICAL
REGION. THIS FEATURE SHOULD ENHANCE DEEP CONVECTION AND
STRENGTHENING WINDS FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. AT THE SAME TIME, A
COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE NW WATERS NEAR 30N140W, TO BE PRECEDED
AND FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO STRONG WINDS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
ATTENDANT TO WEAK LOW PRESSURE THAT MAY MOVE TO THE NORTHERN
WATERS NEAR 29N135W BY EARLY ON MON. BY THE THE MIDDLE PORTION OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK, BROAD LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE WESTERLY WINDS AND
ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS NORTH OF ABOUT 23N.
DELGADO
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