952
AXPZ20 KNHC 210907
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN DEC 21 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0905 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN A PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN
UNITED STATES AND LOWER PRESSURES IN THE DEEP TROPICS WILL
SUPPORT FRESH TO NEAR GALE-FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH LATE THIS WORKWEEK. THIS WAS CONFIRMED BY
A RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS. MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH
SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE WINDS. EARLY THIS WEEK, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE
MOUNTAINS IN MEXICO, FORCING WINDS TO PULSE TO GALE SPEEDS AT
NIGHT MON THROUGH WED, AND POSSIBLY THU. ROUGH SEAS ARE ALSO
LIKELY TO DEVELOP WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS, PEAKING AROUND 10 FT
(3 M).
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIASFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 08N85W AND TO
07N95W. THE ITCZ STRETCHES FROM 07N95W TO 09N120W TO BEYOND
09N140W. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED
FROM 09N TO 19N AND BETWEEN 101W AND 125W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS JUST OFF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND
EXTENDS A RIDGE TO THE GULF OF AMERICA, SUPPORTING FRESH TO NEAR
GALE-FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. MODERATE
SEAS ARE NOTED IN THE AREA DESCRIBED. IN THE REMAINDER OF THE
MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS, A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED WELL
WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE DOMINATES THE AREA. A RECENT
SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS INDICATE THAT MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH NW WINDS ARE FOUND OFF CABO CORRIENTES. SEAS IN THESE
WATERS ARE 3-4 FT. GENTLE TO MODERATE NW-N WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS ARE OCCURRING OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE. MEANWHILE, LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED IN THE OFFSHORE
WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO NEAR GALE-FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE
TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO PULSE TO GALE-FORCE AT NIGHT FROM MON THROUGH WED AND POSSIBLY
THU. ROUGH SEAS WILL DEVELOP WITH THESE WINDS. ELSEWHERE OVER THE
MAJORITY OF THE WATERS, A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
LEAD TO MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SEAS INTO THE EARLY PART OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD, A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE BY THE MIDDLE PORTION
OF THIS WEEK, LIKELY PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND ROUGH SEAS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...CORRECTED
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EXTENDS A RIDGE
TO THE CARIBBEAN SEA, SUSTAINING FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO, EXTENDING DOWNSTREAM TO
AROUND 90W. SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE 4-6 FT. FARTHER EAST,
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS OF 2-4
FT ARE PRESENT IN THE GULF OF PANAMA. MODERATE OR LIGHTER WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
UNITED STATES EASTERN SEABOARD WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS, MAINLY DURING LATE NIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY
MORNINGS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IN THE
GULF OF PANAMA, MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTH WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, EXCEPT FOR WINDS OCCASIONALLY
REACHING FRESH SPEEDS AT NIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS OFF
COLOMBIA. ELSEWHERE, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO
ONLY FORCE MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS INTO THE START OF THE
WORKWEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSITIONED JUST WEST OF THE FAR NW WATERS IS
PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MAINLY FRESH SW WINDS
AND SEAS OF 6-8 FT ARE NOTED NORTH OF 28N AND WEST OF 135W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS OF 6-8 FT ARE OCCURRING FROM 10N TO 17N
AND WEST OF 110W. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS ARE EVIDENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF THE ITCZ/MONSOON
TROUGH AND WEST OF ABOUT 110W THROUGH TODAY, WITH LITTLE CHANGE
IN WINDS AND SEAS. BEGINNING TONIGHT, A SURFACE TROUGH MAY FORM
ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 120W AS A DEEP LAYER TROUGH SHARPEN WHILE
DIGGING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE TROPICAL REGION. THIS FEATURE SHOULD
ENHANCE DEEP CONVECTION AND STRENGTHENING WINDS FOR A COUPLE OF
DAYS. AT THE SAME TIME, A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE NW WATERS
NEAR 30N140W, TO BE PRECEDED AND FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ATTENDANT TO WEAK LOW PRESSURE
THAT MAY MOVE TO THE NORTHERN WATERS NEAR 29N135W BY EARLY ON
MON. BY THE THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, BROAD LOW
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STRONG TO NEAR
GALE-FORCE WESTERLY WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS NORTH OF
ABOUT 23N.
DELGADO
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