597
AXPZ20 KNHC 212120 CCA
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN DEC 21 2025
CORRECTED REMAINDER OF THE AREA SECTION
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 03.4S
TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR, AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN A PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN
UNITED STATES AND LOWER PRESSURES IN THE DEEP TROPICS WILL
SUPPORT FRESH TO NEAR GALE-FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH LATE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK AS WAS
CONFIRMED BY AN OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA PASS.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE WINDS.
FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN OVER THE SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS IN MEXICO,
FORCING WINDS TO PULSE TO GALE SPEEDS AT NIGHT MON THROUGH WED,
AND POSSIBLY THU. ROUGH SEAS ARE ALSO LIKELY TO DEVELOP WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS, PEAKING AROUND 10 FT (3 M).
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIASFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST COLOMBIA TO 08N79W
TO 08N90W TO 09N97W, WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ TO 08N114W
TO 09N125W TO 08N130W AND TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 105W-112W AND FROM
13N TO 16N BETWEEN 117W-125W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM JUST OFF THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE NE GULF OF AMERICA. THE GRADIENT
BETWEEN IT AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURES TO ITS SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST IS CURRENTLY ALLOWING FOR FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED IN THE
AREA DESCRIBED. IN THE REMAINDER OF THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS,
A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED WELL WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
NORTE DOMINATES THE AREA. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE OFF CABO CORRIENTES. SEAS OVER THESE WATERS ARE
3 TO 4 FT. GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS ARE OCCURRING OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE. MEANWHILE,
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED IN
THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO NEAR GALE-FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE
TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO PULSE TO GALE-FORCE AT NIGHT FROM MON THROUGH WED AND POSSIBLY
THU. ROUGH SEAS WILL DEVELOP WITH THESE WINDS. ELSEWHERE OVER THE
MAJORITY OF THE WATERS, A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
LEAD TO MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SEAS INTO THE EARLY PART OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD, A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE BY THE MIDDLE PORTION
OF THIS WEEK, LIKELY PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND ROUGH SEAS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE RELATED GRADIENT IS SUSTAINING
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO, EXTENDING DOWNSTREAM TO AROUND 90W. SEAS OVER THESE
WATERS ARE 4 TO 6 FT. FARTHER EAST, MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY
FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG WITH SEAS OF 3 TO 4 FT ARE PRESENT
IN THE GULF OF PANAMA. MODERATE OR LIGHTER WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
UNITED STATES EASTERN SEABOARD WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS, MAINLY DURING LATE NIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY
MORNINGS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IN THE
GULF OF PANAMA, MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTH WINDS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD, EXCEPT FOR WINDS OCCASIONALLY
REACHING FRESH SPEEDS AT NIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS OFF
COLOMBIA. ELSEWHERE, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO
ONLY FORCE MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS INTO THE START OF THE
WORKWEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
CORRECTED
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS LOCATED JUST NORTHWEST OF THE NORTHWEST
CORNER OF THE AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE JUST EAST
OF THE TROUGH. A COLD FRONT FOLLOWS THE TROUGH WITHIN ABOUT 120 NM.
MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT ARE PRESENT
NORTH OF 28N AND WEST OF ABOUT 135W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS
DOMINATED BY A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN
WATERS. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS ALONG WITH SEAS OF 6
TO 8 FT ARE PRESENT FROM 10N TO 17N AND WEST OF 110W. ELSEWHERE,
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE EVIDENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF THE ITCZ/MONSOON
TROUGH AND WEST OF ABOUT 110W THROUGH TODAY, WITH LITTLE CHANGE
IN WINDS AND SEAS. BEGINNING TONIGHT, A SURFACE TROUGH MAY FORM
ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 120W AS AN UPPER CUT-OFF LOW BECOMES MORE
PRONOUNCED OVER THAT PORTION OF THE TROPICAL REGION. THIS
FEATURE SHOULD ENHANCE DEEP CONVECTION AND STRENGTHENING WINDS
FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. AT THE SAME TIME, A COLD FRONT WILL REACH
THE NORTHWEST WATERS NEAR 30N140W, TO BE PRECEDED AND FOLLOWED BY
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS. LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL BE DRIVING THE
FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WATERS MAY DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD MON AND
MON NIGHT ALONG 29N BETWEEN 130W AND 135W BEFORE IT LIFTS NORTH
OF 30N. A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE THAT BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT MAY RESULT IN STRONG TO
NEAR GALE NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS NORTH OF ABOUT 28N AND BETWEEN
130W AND 132W TUE MORNING. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THESE
WINDS MAY REACH GALE-FORCE. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO AROUND
11 TO 16 FT WITH THESE WINDS. BY THE THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK, BROAD LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE WESTERLY WINDS AND ROUGH TO
VERY ROUGH SEAS NORTH OF ABOUT 25N.
AGUIRRE
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