115
AXPZ20 KNHC 212348 CCA
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN DEC 21 2025
CORRECTED REMAINDER OF THE AREA SECTION
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN A PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN
UNITED STATES AND LOWER PRESSURES IN THE DEEP TROPICS WILL
SUPPORT FRESH TO NEAR GALE-FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH LATE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK. A 1459Z
METOP-B ASCAT PASS CONFIRMED THE OCCURRENCE OF FRESH TO STRONG
NORTH WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION. SEAS WITH THESE
WINDS ARE 5 TO 8 FT. FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK,
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE
MOUNTAINS IN MEXICO, FORCING WINDS TO PULSE TO GALE SPEEDS AT
NIGHT MON THROUGH WED, AND TO NEAR GALE THU. OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO GALE-FORCE CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ROUGH SEAS ARE ALSO LIKELY TO
DEVELOP WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS, PEAKING TO AROUND 11 FT (3.5 M).
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIASFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST COLOMBIA TO ALONG
SOUTHERN PANAMA AND TO 08N85W TO 07N95W TO 08N105W TO 09N113W TO
LOW PRESSURE NEAR 09N123W 1012 MB AND TO 09N127W, WHERE IT
TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ TO 08N132W. IT RESUMES AT 08N135W TO
BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 10N
TO 14N BETWEEN 106W-111W AND FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 117W-124W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES IS BUILDING
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE GULF OF AMERICA. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT
AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURES TO ITS SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST IS
CURRENTLY ALLOWING FOR FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS. OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS, A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
CENTERED WELL WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE DOMINATES THE AREA.
SEAS OVER THESE WATERS ARE 3 TO 4 FT AS INDICATED IN A RECENT
ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA PASS. GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHWEST TO
NORTH WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE OCCURRING OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA
NORTE WHILE LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS
ARE NOTED IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND IN
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL
SUPPORT FRESH TO NEAR GALE-FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE TO
LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS WELL INTO THE WEEK. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PULSE TO GALE-FORCE AT NIGHT FROM MON THROUGH WED AND TO NEAR
GALE THU. ROUGH SEAS WILL DEVELOP WITH THESE WINDS. ELSEWHERE
OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE WATERS, A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SEAS INTO THE
EARLY PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD, A COLD FRONT WILL
BE WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE OFFSHORE WATERS BY THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. THE LEADING EDGE OF A NORTHWEST SWELL
SET PROPAGATING OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE
WESTERN PART OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA ON
WED, AND THE ENTIRE OFFSHORE WATERS NORTH OF THAT SAME LOCATION
BY FRI BUILDING SEAS THERE TO JUST BELOW 12 FT.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE RELATED GRADIENT IS CURRENTLY LEADING TO
MOSTLY FRESH NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WINDS OVER THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO REGION. THE LATEST SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA PASSES
REVEAL THAT THESE WINDS REACH WESTWARD TO NEAR 91W. SEAS OVER
THESE WATERS ARE 4 TO 6 FT. FARTHER EAST, MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY
FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG WITH SEAS OF 3 TO 4 FT ARE PRESENT
IN THE GULF OF PANAMA. MODERATE OR LIGHTER WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS, MAINLY DURING LATE
NIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNINGS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IN THE GULF OF PANAMA, MAINLY GENTLE TO
MODERATE NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD, EXCEPT FOR
WINDS OCCASIONALLY REACHING FRESH SPEEDS AT NIGHT AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MEANDERS OFF COLOMBIA. ELSEWHERE, A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL GENERALLY ALLOW FOR MODERATE OR LIGHTER WINDS ALONG
WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
CORRECTED
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM NEAR 30N135W TO 28N140W
WHILE A STRONG COLD FRONT FOLLOWS THE FRONT FOR WITHIN ABOUT 180
NM. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE JUST EAST OF THE TROUGH.
AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SCATTERED
SHOWERS IS NOTED EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE TROUGH NORTH OF 26N
BETWEEN 132W AND 137W. MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS
OF 6 TO 8 FT ARE PRESENT NORTH OF 28N AND WEST OF ABOUT 135W.
THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS. MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH TRADE WINDS ALONG WITH SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT ARE PRESENT FROM
10N TO 17N AND WEST OF 110W. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS ARE EVIDENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF THE ITCZ/MONSOON
TROUGH AND WEST OF ABOUT 110W THROUGH TODAY, WITH LITTLE CHANGE
IN WINDS AND SEAS. BEGINNING TONIGHT, A SURFACE TROUGH MAY FORM
ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 120W AS AN UPPER CUT-OFF LOW BECOMES MORE
PRONOUNCED OVER THAT PORTION OF THE TROPICAL REGION. PRESENTLY,
AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS
ACTIVE FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 106W-111W AND FROM 13N TO 16N
BETWEEN 117W-124W. THIS FEATURE SHOULD ENHANCE DEEP CONVECTION
AND STRENGTHENING WINDS FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. AT THE SAME TIME,
A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE NORTHWEST WATERS NEAR 30N140W, TO BE
PRECEDED AND FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO STRONG WINDS. LOW PRESSURE
THAT WILL BE DRIVING THE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WATERS MAY
DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD MON AND MON NIGHT ALONG 29N BETWEEN 130W AND
135W BEFORE IT LIFTS NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. A VERY TIGHT
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THAT BUILDS IN
BEHIND THE FRONT MAY RESULT IN STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS NORTH OF ABOUT 28N AND BETWEEN 130W AND
132W ON TUE MORNING. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THESE WINDS MAY
REACH GALE-FORCE. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF 30N AT
THAT TIME. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO AROUND 11 TO 16 FT WITH
THESE WINDS. BY THE THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK, LOW PRESSURE WILL
HAVE INTENSIFIED INTO STORM STATUS NORTH OF THE AREA. THE WIND FIELD
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND OVER A LARGE AREA. THIS WILL
BRING STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE WESTERLY WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY
ROUGH SEAS OVER THE DISCUSSION WATERS NORTH OF ABOUT 25N AND WEST OF
124W.
AGUIRRE
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