435
AXPZ20 KNHC 220311
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON DEC 22 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0305 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN A PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN
UNITED STATES AND LOWER PRESSURES IN THE DEEP TROPICS WILL
SUPPORT FRESH TO NEAR GALE-FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. SEAS WITH THESE WINDS ARE
5 TO 8 FT. FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE
MOUNTAINS IN MEXICO, FORCING WINDS TO PULSE TO GALE SPEEDS AT
NIGHT MON THROUGH WED, AND TO NEAR GALE THU. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
GALE-FORCE CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ROUGH SEAS ARE ALSO LIKELY TO
DEVELOP WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS, PEAKING TO AROUND 11 FT (3.5
M).
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIASFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 06N91W AND TO 08N102W.
THE ITCZ STRETCHES FROM 08N102W TO 09N122W. SURFACE TROUGH IS
DRAPED ACROSS THE TRADES FROM 15N121W TO 07N125W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 06N TO 15N AND BETWEEN 95W
AND 123W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES IS FORCING FRESH
TO NEAR GALE-FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH
SEAS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
NE-E WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE EVIDENT IN THE FAR OFFSHORE
WATERS OF OAXACA. MEANWHILE, THE REMAINDER OF THE OFFSHORE
WATERS OF MEXICO ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A 1019 MB HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR 30N125W THAT EXTENDS A RIDGE TO THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS ARE FOUND OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE AND THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED IN THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL
SUPPORT FRESH TO NEAR GALE-FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE TO
LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PULSE TO GALE-FORCE AT NIGHT FROM MON THROUGH WED AND TO NEAR
GALE THU. ROUGH SEAS WILL DEVELOP WITH THESE WINDS. ELSEWHERE
OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE WATERS, A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SEAS INTO THE
EARLY PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD, A COLD FRONT WILL
BE WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE OFFSHORE WATERS BY THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. THE LEADING EDGE OF A NORTHWEST SWELL
SET PROPAGATING OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE
WESTERN PART OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA ON
WED, AND THE ENTIRE OFFSHORE WATERS NORTH OF THAT SAME LOCATION
BY FRI BUILDING SEAS THERE TO JUST BELOW 12 FT.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA SUPPORTS
FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ACROSS THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO, EXTENDING DOWNSTREAM TO 89W. FARTHER EAST,
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS OF 2-4 FT ARE
FOUND IN THE GULF OF PANAMA. IN THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN,
MODERATE OR LIGHTER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS, MAINLY DURING LATE
NIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNINGS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IN THE GULF OF PANAMA, MAINLY GENTLE TO
MODERATE NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD, EXCEPT FOR
WINDS OCCASIONALLY REACHING FRESH SPEEDS AT NIGHT AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MEANDERS OFF COLOMBIA. ELSEWHERE, A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL GENERALLY ALLOW FOR MODERATE OR LIGHTER WINDS ALONG
WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR
33N133W TO 27N140W AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE SEEN AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY OVER THE FAR NW WATERS. THE REST OF THE TROPICAL EASTERN
PACIFIC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER
THE NORTHERN WATERS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURES IN THE DEEP TROPICS
RESULTS IN MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
BETWEEN 10N AND 20N AND WEST OF 110W. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE
FOUND IN THE EASTERN WATERS, NORTH OF 08N AND EAST OF 110W.
MEANWHILE, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH S-SE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
ARE PRESENT SOUTH OF 07N. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 123W WILL
ENHANCE DEEP CONVECTION AND STRENGTHEN WINDS FOR A COUPLE OF
DAYS. MEANWHILE, A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE NORTHWEST WATERS
MON, FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO NEAR GALE-FORCE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS.
LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL BE DRIVING THE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
WATERS MAY DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD MON AND MON NIGHT ALONG 29N BETWEEN
130W AND 135W BEFORE IT LIFTS NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. A
VERY TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THAT
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT MAY RESULT IN STRONG TO NEAR GALE-
FORCE NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS NORTH OF ABOUT 28N AND BETWEEN
130W AND 132W ON TUE MORNING. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THESE
WINDS MAY REACH GALE-FORCE. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED NORTH
OF 30N AT THAT TIME. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO AROUND 11 TO
16 FT WITH THESE WINDS. BY THE THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK, LOW
PRESSURE WILL HAVE INTENSIFIED INTO STORM STATUS NORTH OF THE
AREA. THE WIND FIELD WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND OVER
A LARGE AREA. THIS WILL BRING STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE WESTERLY
WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS OVER THE DISCUSSION WATERS
NORTH OF ABOUT 25N AND WEST OF 124W.
DELGADO
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