850
AXPZ20 KNHC 220935
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON DEC 22 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0905 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN A PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN
UNITED STATES AND LOWER PRESSURES IN THE DEEP TROPICS WILL
SUPPORT FRESH TO NEAR GALE-FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH FRI. SEAS WITH THESE WINDS ARE 6 TO 9 FT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE
MOUNTAINS IN MEXICO WILL FORCE WINDS TO PULSE TO GALE SPEEDS AT
NIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH WED. SEAS WILL PEAK AROUND 11 FT (3.5 M)
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY THE WEEKEND.
NORTHERN WATERS GALE WARNING: A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N133W
TO 25N140W. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE
FRONT TONIGHT AND STRENGTHEN INTO TUE. THE LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO PRODUCE STRONG TO GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE NORTHERN
WATERS, MAINLY NORTH OF 28N AND BETWEEN 127W AND 135W, TONIGHT
INTO TUE. WINDS WILL DECREASE BELOW GALE-FORCE TUE EVENING AS
THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER NORTH OF OUR WATERS. STRONG TO
NEAR GALE-FORCE WINDS WILL PERSIST NORTH OF 26N INTO LATE THU.
NORTHERLY SWELL WILL FOLLOW THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE AND COLD
FRONT, SUPPORTING SEAS OF 12 TO 18 FT REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS
24N AND EAST AS 125W BY THU. MEANWHILE, SEAS TO 8 FT WILL REACH
11N AND 117W ALSO BY THU.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE INFORMATION.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 06N93W AND TO 08N107W.
THE ITCZ STRETCHES FROM 08N126W TO BEYOND 08N140W. SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG 121W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED
FROM 07N TO 17N AND BETWEEN 95W AND 123W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE
GALE WARNING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
A STRONG 1036 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES EXTENDS A RIDGE TO THE GULF OF AMERICA, SUPPORTING FRESH
TO NEAR GALE-FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE 6-9 FT. FARTHER SOUTH,
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE-E WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE
EVIDENT IN THE FAR OFFSHORE WATERS OF OAXACA.
MEANWHILE, THE REMAINDER OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF MEXICO ARE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR
31N123W THAT EXTENDS A WEAK RIDGE TO THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS.
A RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS INDICATE THAT GENTLE TO
MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FOUND OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE,
WHILE LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE NOTED OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR.
SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE MODERATE. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER
WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SUPPORT
FRESH TO NEAR GALE-FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY
ROUGH SEAS THROUGH FRI. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE TO GALE-
FORCE AT NIGHT FROM TODAY THROUGH WED. ROUGH SEAS WILL DEVELOP
WITH THESE WINDS. LOOKING AHEAD, A COLD FRONT WILL BE WEST OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE OFFSHORE WATERS BY THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEK. THE LEADING EDGE OF A NORTHWEST SWELL SET PROPAGATING OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE WESTERN PART OF THE
OFFSHORE WATERS NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA ON WED, AND THE ENTIRE
OFFSHORE WATERS NORTH OF THAT SAME LOCATION BY FRI BUILDING SEAS
THERE TO JUST BELOW 12 FT. FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY
DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA WED NIGHT INTO THU.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES FORCES FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO, EXTENDING DOWNSTREAM
TO 90W. FARTHER EAST, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS
AND SEAS OF 3-5 FT ARE FOUND IN THE GULF OF PANAMA. IN THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN, MODERATE OR LIGHTER WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS, MAINLY DURING LATE
NIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNINGS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IN THE GULF OF PANAMA, MAINLY GENTLE TO
MODERATE NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD, EXCEPT FOR
WINDS OCCASIONALLY REACHING FRESH SPEEDS AT NIGHT AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MEANDERS OFF COLOMBIA. ELSEWHERE, A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL GENERALLY ALLOW FOR MODERATE OR LIGHTER WINDS ALONG
WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE
GALE WARNING IN THE NORTHERN WATERS.
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST WATERS,
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
BOUNDARY. THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC IS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN
WATERS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE
AND LOWER PRESSURES IN THE DEEP TROPICS RESULTS IN MODERATE TO
FRESH EASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS BETWEEN 10N AND 20N AND
WEST OF 110W. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE FOUND IN THE EASTERN WATERS,
NORTH OF 08N AND EAST OF 110W. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE
PASS SHOWED THAT STRONGER WINDS ARE OCCURRING NEAR THE STRONGEST
CONVECTION. MEANWHILE, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH S-SE WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS ARE PRESENT SOUTH OF 07N. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 123W WILL
ENHANCE DEEP CONVECTION AND STRENGTHEN WINDS FOR A COUPLE OF
DAYS. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP TODAY ALONG THE COLD
FRONT IN THE FAR NW WATERS. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DRIVING THE
FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WATERS SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY INTO TUE ALONG
29N BETWEEN 125W AND 135W BEFORE IT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA. A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE THAT BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE STRONG
TO GALE-FORCE NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS NORTH OF ABOUT 28N AND
BETWEEN 127W AND 135W TONIGHT INTO TUE. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD WITH THESE WINDS. BY THE THE MIDDLE PART
OF THE WEEK, LOW PRESSURE WILL HAVE INTENSIFIED INTO STORM STATUS
NORTH OF THE AREA. THE WIND FIELD WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO EXPAND OVER A LARGE AREA. THIS WILL BRING STRONG TO NEAR GALE-
FORCE WESTERLY WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS OVER THE
DISCUSSION WATERS NORTH OF ABOUT 24N AND WEST OF 125W.
DELGADO
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