345
AXPZ20 KNHC 221513
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON DEC 22 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1430 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC
MONSOON TROUGH WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO NEAR GALE- FORCE NORTHERLY
WINDS AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE TO GALE- FORCE AT NIGHT TONIGHT
THROUGH WED NIGHT. SEAS WILL PEAK AROUND 11 FT (3.5 M) WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY THE WEEKEND.
NORTHERN WATERS GALE WARNING: A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N133W
TO 24N140W. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE
FRONT TONIGHT AND STRENGTHEN INTO TUE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND HIGH PRESSURE NW OF THE
AREA WILL PRODUCE STRONG TO GALE- FORCE WINDS IN THE NORTHERN
WATERS, MAINLY NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 127W AND 135W, TONIGHT INTO
TUE. WINDS WILL DECREASE BELOW GALE- FORCE TUE EVENING AS THE LOW
PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER NORTH OF OUR WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO
NEAR 15 FT WITH THIS SYSTEM. A SECOND GALE FORCE LOW NORTH OF THE
AREA WILL GENERATE A NEW SET OF LARGE NW SWELL, WHICH WILL
REINFORCE THESE VERY ROUGH SEAS. COMBINED SEAS OF 12 TO 18 FT
WILL SPREAD OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS, COVERING MUCH OF THE WATERS
N OF 24N AND W OF 125W BY THU BEFORE STARTING TO SUBSIDE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE INFORMATION.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N85W TO 07N92W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 07N92W TO 11N115W. IT RESUMES FROM 10N126W TO
08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 07N TO 16N
AND BETWEEN 99W AND 123W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ON A
GALE WARNING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
ASIDE FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE DISCUSSION AREA IS SUPPORTING GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE
WINDS, AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST ASIDE FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, NORTHWEST
SWELL WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE WATERS NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA BY
WED. A REINFORCING SWELL WILL SPREAD ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THE END OF THE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY
DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA WED NIGHT INTO THU.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ARE OVER AND DOWNSTREAM THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO. MODERATE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE N OF 09N. MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF OF PANAMA. LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE N OF 04N. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE SOUTH
OF 04N. SEAS ARE IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE OVER THE DISCUSSION WATERS,
EXCEPT FOR THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WHERE SEAS OF 6-7 FT PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH
WILL SUPPORT PULSING FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST GAP WINDS
IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MAINLY GENTLE
TO MODERATE NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF PANAMA
DURING THE PERIOD, OCCASIONALLY REACHING FRESH SPEEDS AT NIGHT.
MODERATE OR LIGHTER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE
GALE WARNING IN THE NORTHERN WATERS.
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 16N116W TO 08N123W. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM 30N133W TO 24N140W, PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE BOUNDARY. HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS N OF 20N, ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N122W. A LOOSE PRESSURE GRADIENT DOMINATES
THE DISCUSSION WATERS, WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS NORTH OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ TO NEAR 20N, AND LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS N OF
20N. S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ, MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL.
MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP TODAY ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN THE FAR NW WATERS. THE
LOW AND FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WATERS, WITH THE
COLD FRONT SHIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY INTO TUE BEFORE LIFTING
NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW
AND HIGH PRESSURE NW OF THE AREA WILL PRODUCE STRONG TO GALE-
FORCE NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS NORTH OF ABOUT 28N AND BETWEEN
127W AND 135W TONIGHT INTO TUE. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BUILD WITH THESE WINDS. THIS SYSTEM WILL SHIFT N OF
THE AREA WITH WINDS OVER THE DISCUSSION WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE DIMINISHING. A SECOND GALE FORCE LOW WILL DEVELOP
NORTH OF THE AREA WITH A BROAD WIND FIELD BRINGING STRONG TO NEAR
GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN DISCUSSION WATERS BY MIDWEEK.
A SET OF LARGE NW SWELL GENERATED FROM THIS FEATURE WILL
REINFORCE THE ROUGH SEAS GENERATED FROM THE FIRST LOW.
AL
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