546
AXPZ20 KNHC 222016
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON DEC 22 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2000 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC
MONSOON TROUGH WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO NEAR GALE- FORCE NORTHERLY
WINDS AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE TO GALE- FORCE AT NIGHT TONIGHT
AND TUE NIGHT. SEAS WILL PEAK AROUND 11 FT (3.5 M) WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY THE WEEKEND.
NORTHERN WATERS GALE WARNING: A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM
30N133W TO 24N140W. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO FORM
ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT AND STRENGTHEN INTO TUE. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND HIGH PRESSURE NW
OF THE AREA WILL PRODUCE STRONG TO GALE- FORCE WINDS IN THE
NORTHERN WATERS, MAINLY NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 127W AND 135W,
TUE. WINDS WILL DECREASE BELOW GALE- FORCE TUE EVENING AS THE
LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER NORTH OF OUR WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD
TO NEAR 15 FT WITH THIS SYSTEM. A SECOND GALE FORCE LOW NORTH OF
THE AREA WILL GENERATE A NEW SET OF LARGE NW SWELL, WHICH WILL
REINFORCE THESE VERY ROUGH SEAS. COMBINED SEAS OF 12 TO 18 FT
WILL SPREAD OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS, COVERING MUCH OF THE WATERS
N OF 24N AND W OF 125W BY THU BEFORE STARTING TO SUBSIDE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE INFORMATION.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09.5N84W TO 05N94W TO 07N104W.
THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 07N104W TO 10N115W. IT RESUMES FROM
10N128W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM
07N TO 15N BETWEEN 102W AND 122W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ON A
GALE WARNING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
ASIDE FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE DISCUSSION AREA IS SUPPORTING GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE
WINDS, AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST ASIDE FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, NORTHWEST
SWELL WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE WATERS NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA BY
WED. A REINFORCING SWELL WILL SPREAD ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THE END OF THE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY
DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA WED NIGHT INTO THU.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ARE OVER AND DOWNSTREAM THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO. MODERATE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE N OF 09N. MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF OF PANAMA. LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE N OF 03N. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE SOUTH
OF 04N. SEAS ARE IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE OVER THE DISCUSSION WATERS,
EXCEPT FOR THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WHERE SEAS OF 5-6 FT PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH
WILL SUPPORT PULSING FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST GAP WINDS
IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MAINLY GENTLE
TO MODERATE NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF PANAMA
DURING THE PERIOD, OCCASIONALLY REACHING FRESH SPEEDS AT NIGHT.
MODERATE OR LIGHTER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE
GALE WARNING IN THE NORTHERN WATERS.
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 18N123W TO 07N123W. A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N133W TO 24N140W, PRODUCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE BOUNDARY. FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS ARE WEST OF THIS FRONT. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
DOMINATES THE DISCUSSION WATERS, WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS
NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ TO NEAR 20N, AND LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS ELSEWHERE N OF 20N. S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ, MODERATE
WINDS PREVAIL. MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT ALONG THE FRONT IN THE FAR NW WATERS. THE
LOW AND FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WATERS, WITH THE
COLD FRONT SHIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO TUE BEFORE LIFTING NORTH
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND HIGH
PRESSURE NW OF THE AREA WILL PRODUCE STRONG TO GALE- FORCE
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS NORTH OF ABOUT 28N AND BETWEEN 127W AND
135W BY EARLY TUE. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
BUILD WITH THESE WINDS. THIS SYSTEM WILL SHIFT N OF THE AREA WITH
WINDS OVER THE DISCUSSION WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
DIMINISHING. A SECOND GALE FORCE LOW WILL DEVELOP NORTH OF THE
AREA WITH A BROAD WIND FIELD BRINGING STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE
WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN DISCUSSION WATERS BY MIDWEEK. A SET OF
LARGE NW SWELL GENERATED FROM THIS FEATURE WILL REINFORCE THE
ROUGH SEAS GENERATED FROM THE FIRST LOW.
AL
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