543
AXPZ20 KNHC 230315
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE DEC 23 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0305 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC
MONSOON TROUGH WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO NEAR GALE- FORCE NORTHERLY
WINDS AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE TO GALE- FORCE AT NIGHT TONIGHT
AND TUE NIGHT. SEAS WILL PEAK AROUND 11 FT (3.5 M) WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY THE WEEKEND.
NORTHERN WATERS GALE WARNING: A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM
30N133W TO 24N140W. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO FORM
ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT AND STRENGTHEN INTO TUE. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND HIGH PRESSURE NW
OF THE AREA WILL PRODUCE STRONG TO GALE- FORCE WINDS IN THE
NORTHERN WATERS, MAINLY NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 127W AND 135W,
TUE. WINDS WILL DECREASE BELOW GALE- FORCE TUE EVENING AS THE
LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER NORTH OF OUR WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD
TO NEAR 15 FT WITH THIS SYSTEM. A SECOND GALE FORCE LOW NORTH OF
THE AREA WILL GENERATE A NEW SET OF LARGE NW SWELL, WHICH WILL
REINFORCE THESE VERY ROUGH SEAS. COMBINED SEAS OF 12 TO 18 FT
WILL SPREAD OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS, COVERING MUCH OF THE WATERS
N OF 24N AND W OF 125W BY THU BEFORE STARTING TO SUBSIDE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE INFORMATION.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N83W TO 06N96W. THE ITCZ STRETCHES
FROM 06N96W TO 11N120W. SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 124W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 10N126W TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED FROM 07N TO 17N BETWEEN 101W AND 120W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ON A
GALE WARNING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
ASIDE FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUPPORTS LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT
TO MODERATE SEAS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE
WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, ASIDE FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, NORTHWEST
SWELL WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE WATERS NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA BY
WED. A REINFORCING SWELL WILL SPREAD ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THE END OF THE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY
DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA WED NIGHT INTO THU.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ARE OVER AND DOWNSTREAM THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO DUE TO STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE
CARIBBEAN. SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE 5-7 FT. A RECENT
SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS CAPTURED MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE GULF OF PANAMA. SEAS IN THE AREA ARE 2-4
FT. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH
WILL SUPPORT PULSING FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST GAP WINDS
IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MAINLY GENTLE
TO MODERATE NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF PANAMA
DURING THE PERIOD, OCCASIONALLY REACHING FRESH SPEEDS AT NIGHT.
MODERATE OR LIGHTER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE
GALE WARNING IN THE NORTHERN WATERS.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE IS LOCATED NEAR 28N133W TO 23N140W, WHILE A WARM FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 30N131W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED NORTH OF THE LOW. FRESH TO NEAR GALE-
FORCE N-NE AND ROUGH SEAS ARE OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES. THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC IS
DOMINATED BY A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY WINDS ARE PRESENT NORTH OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ AND EAST OF 125W. SEAS IN THESE
WATERS ARE 6-8 FT. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE LOW OVER
THE NW WATERS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS, WHILE THE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD INTO TUE
BEFORE LIFTING NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. A TIGHT GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE NW OF THE AREA WILL PRODUCE
STRONG TO GALE- FORCE NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS NORTH OF ABOUT 28N
AND BETWEEN 127W AND 135W BY EARLY TUE. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD WITH THESE WINDS. THIS SYSTEM WILL SHIFT N
OF THE AREA WITH WINDS OVER THE DISCUSSION WATERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE DIMINISHING. A SECOND GALE FORCE LOW WILL
DEVELOP NORTH OF THE AREA WITH A BROAD WIND FIELD BRINGING STRONG
TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN DISCUSSION WATERS BY
MIDWEEK. A SET OF LARGE NW SWELL GENERATED FROM THIS FEATURE WILL
REINFORCE THE ROUGH SEAS GENERATED FROM THE FIRST LOW.
DELGADO
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