814
AXPZ20 KNHC 230943
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE DEC 23 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0905 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC
MONSOON TROUGH WILL SUSTAIN FRESH TO NEAR GALE-FORCE NORTHERLY
WINDS AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. WINDS WILL PULSE TO GALE-FORCE AT NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT.
A RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF
STRONG TO GALE-FORCE WINDS, PEAKING AT 34 KT. SEAS WILL PEAK
AROUND 11 FT (3.5 M) WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS. LATEST ALTIMETER
PASS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC CAPTURED
SEAS TO 9 FT (3 M). CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY THE WEEKEND.
NORTHERN WATERS GALE WARNING: A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD
FROM A STRENGTHENING 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR 28N133W TO 22N140W,
WHILE A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 30N131W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED NORTH OF THE LOW.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND HIGH
PRESSURE NW OF THE AREA WILL PRODUCE STRONG TO GALE-FORCE WINDS
IN THE NORTHERN WATERS, MAINLY NORTH OF 26N, TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS INDICATE THAT
STRONG TO GALE-FORCE N-NW WINDS ARE OCCURRING WEST OF THE LOW.
WINDS WILL DECREASE BELOW GALE-FORCE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER NORTH OF OUR WATERS. SEAS WILL
BUILD TO NEAR 15 FT (4.5 M) WITH THIS SYSTEM TONIGHT. A SECOND
GALE FORCE LOW NORTH OF THE AREA WILL GENERATE A NEW SET OF LARGE
NW SWELL, WHICH WILL REINFORCE THESE VERY ROUGH SEAS. COMBINED
SEAS OF 12 TO 18 FT (3.5-5.5 M) WILL SPREAD OVER THE NORTHERN
WATERS, COVERING MUCH OF THE WATERS N OF 24N AND W OF 125W BY THU
BEFORE STARTING TO SUBSIDE. THIS LOW WILL ALSO PRODUCE STRONG TO
NEAR GALE-FORCE WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA DESCRIBED. WINDS
COULD REACH GALE SPEEDS IN THE FAR NW WATERS WED INTO WED NIGHT.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW STRONG SPEEDS THU NIGHT.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE INFORMATION.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 08N85W AND TO 06N94W.
THE ITCZ STRETCHES FROM 06N94W TO 10N115W. SURFACE TROUGH ALONG
122W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 09N126W TO BEYOND 09N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 07N TO 18N AND BETWEEN 105W
AND 120W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ON A
GALE WARNING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
ASIDE FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, A 1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM NEAR 25N118W DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE MEXICAN
OFFSHORE WATERS. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED IN FAR OFFSHORE WATERS OF OAXACA AND
GUERRERO. MEANWHILE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, ASIDE FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, SUPPORTING
FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT INTO WED. NORTHWEST
SWELL WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE WATERS NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA
TONIGHT INTO WED. A REINFORCING SWELL WILL SPREAD ROUGH SEAS ACROSS
THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BY THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY
DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA WED NIGHT INTO THU.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FORCES FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO,
EXTENDING DOWNSTREAM TO 90W. FARTHER EAST, MODERATE NORTHERLY
WINDS AND SEAS OF 2-4 FT ARE FOUND IN THE GULF OF PANAMA. IN THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN, MODERATE OR LIGHTER WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS ARE PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH
WILL SUPPORT PULSING FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST GAP WINDS
IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MAINLY GENTLE TO
MODERATE NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF PANAMA DURING THE
PERIOD, OCCASIONALLY REACHING FRESH SPEEDS AT NIGHT. MODERATE OR
LIGHTER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE
GALE WARNING IN THE NORTHERN WATERS.
ASIDE FROM THE STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE FAR NW
WATERS THAT IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF STRONG TO GALE-FORCE N
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS, THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC
IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY WINDS ARE PRESENT NORTH OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH AND ITCZ AND EAST OF 125W. SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE 5-7
FT. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE
PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, LOW PRESSURE OVER THE FAR NW WATERS WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD TODAY, DRAGGING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE LOW AND 1041 MB HIGH PRESSURE NW OF THE AREA WILL PRODUCE
STRONG TO GALE- FORCE NW-N WINDS NORTH OF ABOUT 26N TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD WITH
THESE WINDS. THIS SYSTEM WILL SHIFT N OF THE AREA WITH WINDS OVER
THE DISCUSSION WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE DIMINISHING.
A SECOND GALE FORCE LOW WILL DEVELOP NORTH OF THE AREA WITH A
BROAD WIND FIELD BRINGING STRONG TO POSSIBLE GALE FORCE WINDS
OVER THE NORTHERN DISCUSSION WATERS BY MIDWEEK. A SET OF LARGE NW
SWELL GENERATED FROM THIS FEATURE WILL REINFORCE THE ROUGH SEAS
GENERATED FROM THE FIRST LOW. MEANWHILE, THE SURFACE TROUGH IN
THE TRADE WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE CONVECTION WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS BEFORE DIMINISHING WED.
DELGADO
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