565
AXPZ20 KNHC 231453
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE DEC 23 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1430 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: HE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC
MONSOON TROUGH WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO NEAR GALE-FORCE NORTHERLY
GAP WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS IN TEHUANTEPEC WILL PULSE TO
GALE-FORCE TONIGHT AND WED NIGHT. SEAS WILL PEAK AROUND 11 FT
(3.5 M) WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY THE
WEEKEND.
NORTHERN WATERS GALE WARNING: A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD
FROM A 1003 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR 27N133W TO 21N140W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF
THE LOW. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
AND HIGH PRESSURE NW OF THE AREA WILL PRODUCE STRONG TO GALE-
FORCE WINDS IN THE NORTHERN WATERS, MAINLY NORTH OF 26N, TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE-FORCE IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER NORTH OF OUR
WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 15 FT (4.5 M) WITH THIS SYSTEM
TONIGHT. A SECOND GALE FORCE LOW NORTH OF THE AREA WILL GENERATE
A NEW SET OF LARGE NW SWELL, WHICH WILL REINFORCE THESE VERY
ROUGH SEAS. COMBINED SEAS OF 12 TO 18 FT (3.5-5.5 M) WILL SPREAD
OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS, COVERING MUCH OF THE WATERS N OF 24N
AND W OF 125W BY THU BEFORE STARTING TO SUBSIDE. THIS LOW WILL
ALSO PRODUCE STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA DESCRIBED. WINDS COULD REACH GALE SPEEDS IN THE FAR NW
WATERS WED INTO WED NIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW STRONG
SPEEDS THU NIGHT.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE INFORMATION.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 08N87W TO 06N94W. THE
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 06N94W TO 07N106W TO 12N123W. IT RESUMES WEST
OF A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 11N128W TO BEYOND 10N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 06N TO 16N
BETWEEN 105W AND 112W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N
TO 20N BETWEEN 112W AND 121W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ON A
GALE WARNING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
ASIDE FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
PREVAILS. WITH THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT, LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS, AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, ASIDE FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA,
SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT INTO WED.
NORTHWEST SWELL WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE WATERS NORTH OF PUNTA
EUGENIA TONIGHT INTO WED. A REINFORCING SWELL WILL SPREAD ROUGH
SEAS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS MAY DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA WED NIGHT
INTO THU.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ARE OVER AND DOWNSTREAM THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO. MODERATE WINDS ARE IN THE GULF OF PANAMA AND OFF THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA. GENTLE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE N OF 02N. S OF 02N,
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL. SEAS ARE IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE,
EXCEPT REACHING 6 FT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH
WILL SUPPORT PULSING FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST GAP WINDS
IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MAINLY GENTLE
TO MODERATE NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF PANAMA
DURING THE PERIOD, OCCASIONALLY REACHING FRESH SPEEDS AT NIGHT.
MODERATE OR LIGHTER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE
GALE WARNING IN THE NORTHERN WATERS.
ASIDE FROM THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH A GALE WARNING, A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 17N121W TO 08N125W. GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS ARE EAST OF THE TROUGH. ELSEWHERE, A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT PREVAILS. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS, AND
MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, LOW PRESSURE OVER THE FAR NW WATERS WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD TODAY, DRAGGING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE LOW AND 1040 MB HIGH PRESSURE NW OF THE AREA WILL
PRODUCE STRONG TO GALE- FORCE NW-N WINDS NORTH OF ABOUT 26N TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD
WITH THESE WINDS. THIS SYSTEM WILL SHIFT N OF THE AREA WITH WINDS
OVER THE DISCUSSION WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
DIMINISHING. A SECOND GALE FORCE LOW WILL DEVELOP NORTH OF THE
AREA WITH A BROAD WIND FIELD BRINGING STRONG TO POSSIBLE GALE
FORCE WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN DISCUSSION WATERS BY MIDWEEK. A SET
OF LARGE NW SWELL GENERATED FROM THIS FEATURE WILL REINFORCE THE
ROUGH SEAS GENERATED FROM THE FIRST LOW. MEANWHILE, THE SURFACE
TROUGH IN THE TRADE WATERS WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS BEFORE DIMINISHING WED.
AL
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