295
AXPZ20 KNHC 240907
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED DEC 24 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0905 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC
MONSOON TROUGH WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO NEAR GALE-FORCE NORTHERLY
GAP WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS IN TEHUANTEPEC WILL PULSE TO
GALE-FORCE THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT. SEAS WILL
PEAK AROUND 11 FT (3.5 M) WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE BY THE WEEKEND.
NORTHERN WATERS GALE WARNING: A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE BASIN NEAR
30N125W AND EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD TO 21N131W. STRONG TO LOCALLY
GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT, ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF 25N AND WEST OF 119W. THE GALE-FORCE WINDS WILL SHIFT
NORTH OF OUR WATERS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LARGE NW SWELL IS
PRODUCING SEAS OF 12-15 FT IN THE FAR NW WATERS AND GREATER THAN
8 FT NORTH OF 19N AND WEST OF 120W.
A SECOND LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY, CURRENTLY WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA, WILL SWING BY JUST NORTH OF OUR WATERS TODAY INTO THU,
DRAGGING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. GALE
FORCE WINDS SOUTH OF THE LOW WILL IMPACT THE NORTHERN WATERS,
MAINLY N OF 29N TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL SHIFT
NORTHWARD, WITH GALE FORCE WINDS SHIFTING N OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.
THE LOW WILL THEN WEAKEN THU INTO FRI, WITH WINDS OVER THE
DISCUSSION AREA DIMINISHING BELOW STRONG SPEEDS THU NIGHT. THIS
SYSTEM WILL GENERATE A NEW SET OF LARGE NW SWELL, WHICH WILL
REINFORCE THE VERY ROUGH SEAS GENERATED FROM THE FIRST GALE FORCE
SYSTEM. COMBINED SEAS OF 12 TO 19 FT (3.5-5.5 M) WILL SPREAD
OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS, COVERING MUCH OF THE WATERS N OF 24N
AND W OF 125W BY THU BEFORE STARTING TO SUBSIDE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE INFORMATION.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N77W TO 06N90W TO 06N105W. THE
ITCZ STRETCHES FROM 06N116W TO BEYOND 09N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS NOTED NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH OR ITCZ.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ON A
GALE WARNING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
OUTSIDE OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, AN EASTWARD-MOVING COLD
FRONT IS LOCATED ABOUT 360 MILES WEST OF GUADALUPE ISLAND. FRESH
TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY, AFFECTING THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE,
ESPECIALLY WEST OF GUADALUPE ISLAND. SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE 5-8
FT. ELSEWHERE IN THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS, MODERATE OR LIGHTER
WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, ASIDE FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE
WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY. NORTHWEST
SWELL WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE WATERS NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA
TODAY INTO THU. A REINFORCING SWELL WILL SPREAD ROUGH SEAS
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BY THE
END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA
TONIGHT INTO THU. MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA THU NIGHT INTO THE
WEEKEND.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
THE EXTENSIVE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED NORTH OF THE NW
CARIBBEAN SUSTAINS MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO, EXTENDING DOWNSTREAM TO 90W. SEAS IN THESE
WATERS ARE 5-7 FT. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NORTHER WINDS AND
SEAS OF 2-4 FT ARE FOUND IN THE GULF OF PANAMA. ELSEWHERE,
MODERATE OR LIGHTER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH
WILL SUPPORT PULSING FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST GAP WINDS
IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MAINLY GENTLE
TO MODERATE NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF PANAMA
DURING THE PERIOD, OCCASIONALLY REACHING FRESH SPEEDS AT NIGHT.
MODERATE OR LIGHTER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE
GALE WARNING IN THE NORTHERN WATERS.
ASIDE FOR THE GALE WARNING IN THE NORTHERN WATERS, A WELL-DEFINED
SURFACE TROUGH IS NOTED IN THE TRADE WATERS ALONG 113W. A RECENT
SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS CAPTURED FRESH TO NEAR GALE-FORCE
EASTERLY WINDS EAST OF THE TROUGH. SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE 6-8
FT. FARTHER EAST, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS ARE OCCURRING NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND EAST
OF 110W. IN THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR
WEAKER ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, ASIDE FROM THE GALE WARNING DISCUSSED ABOVE,
THE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS DUE TO THE
TROUGH IN THE TRADES WATERS WILL DIMINISH TODAY. ELSEWHERE,
WINDS WILL BE MODERATE OR WEAKER THROUGH THE PERIOD. LARGE NW
SWELL GENERATED FROM THE TWO GALE FORCE SYSTEMS WILL SPREAD ROUGH
SEAS SE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS. SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT
WILL COVER MUCH OF THE WATERS N OF 10N AND W OF 110W ON SAT
BEFORE SEAS START TO SUBSIDE. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS WEEKEND AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH.
DELGADO
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