067
AXPZ20 KNHC 250301
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU DEC 25 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0230 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE REGION
WILL FORCE GALE-FORCE NORTHERLY GAP WINDS INTO THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC INTO EARLY THU ALONG WITH ROUGH SEAS. STRONG WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
NORTHERN WATERS GALE WARNING: LOW PRESSURE CENTERED N OF THE AREA
NEAR 36N133W WILL CONTINUE TO BRING GALE FORCE NW WINDS INTO THE
AREA N OF 29N AND W OF 130W THIS EVENING, WITH STRONG WINDS
PREVAILING SOUTHWARD TO 26N AND EASTWARD TO 124W. THE LOW WILL
SHIFT NE AND FURTHER FROM THE AREA TONIGHT, WITH ASSOCIATED GALE
FORCE WINDS SHIFTING N OF THE AREA. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN THU INTO
FRI, WITH WINDS OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA DIMINISHING BELOW STRONG
SPEEDS THU NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM HAS GENERATED A NEW SET OF LARGE
NW SWELL WITH VERY ROUGH SEAS. COMBINED SEAS OF 12 TO 19 FT WILL
SPREAD OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS, COVERING MUCH OF THE WATERS N OF
24N AND W OF 125W BY THU BEFORE STARTING TO SUBSIDE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE INFORMATION.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 06N94W. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 06N94W TO 09N127W TO BEYOND 08N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS NOTED NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH OR ITCZ.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON A GALE
WARNING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
OUTSIDE OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, FRESH SE WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED
IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL IS
CAUSING ROUGH SEAS OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE. ELSEWHERE,
MODERATE OR LIGHTER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, ASIDE FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, NW SWELL
OVER THE WATERS NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA WILL BE REINFORCED BY A
NEW SET OF NW SWELL BY THE END OF THE WEEK, SPREADING ROUGH SEAS
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA. FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN
GULF OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT INTO THU.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE OVER THE PAPAGAYO REGION. MODERATE TO
FRESH WINDS ARE IN THE GULF OF PANAMA. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE
ELSEWHERE N OF 05N. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE FOUND SOUTH OF
05N. SEAS ARE IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE, EXCEPT REACHING 6 TO 7 FT IN
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH
WILL SUPPORT PULSING FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST GAP WINDS
IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MAINLY GENTLE TO
MODERATE NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF PANAMA DURING
THE PERIOD, OCCASIONALLY REACHING FRESH SPEEDS AT NIGHT. MODERATE
OR LIGHTER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON THE GALE
WARNING IN THE NORTHERN WATERS.
ASIDE FROM THE GALE WARNING DISCUSSED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION ABOVE, A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N118W TO 19N129W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM E OF THIS FRONT.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE FAR NW AREA, EXTENDING FROM
30N130W TO 29N140W. TO THE SE OF THESE FEATURES, A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH ALONG 117W FROM 10N TO 20N IS INDUCING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM ON BOTH SIDES OF ITS AXIS. LARGE NW SWELL
IS SPREAD INTO THE WATERS, WITH ROUGH SEAS NOW NW OF A LINE FROM
30N118W TO 16N140W. VERY ROUGH SEAS OF 12 TO 18 FT ARE NOW
ONGOING N OF 26N AND W OF 129W. ELSEWHERE, WINDS AND SEAS ARE
MAINLY MODERATE.
FOR THE FORECAST, ASIDE FROM THE GALE WARNING DISCUSSED ABOVE,
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LARGE NW SWELL WILL
SPREAD ROUGH SEAS SE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS. SEAS GREATER
THAN 8 FT WILL COVER MUCH OF THE WATERS N OF 09N AND W OF 110W ON
SAT BEFORE SEAS START TO SUBSIDE. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS WEEKEND AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND SURFACE TROUGH.
KONARIK
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