785
AXPZ20 KNHC 251615
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU DEC 25 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1510 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE REGION
CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF AMERICA AND NORTHERN MEXICO
IS FORCING GALE-FORCE NORTHERLY GAP WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC THIS MORNING, AND PRODUCING ROUGH SEAS TO 12 FT.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE-FORCE BY AROUND NOON
TODAY, WITH STRONG WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS THEN CONTINUING INTO
THE WEEKEND.
NORTHERN WATERS SIGNIFICANT SWELL: LARGE NW SWELL GENERATED BY A
LARGE AND DEEP LAYERED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED N OF THE
AREA IS BRINGING VERY ROUGH SEAS TO WATERS N OF 25N AND W OF
124W, WITH SEAS OF UP TO 16 FT NEAR 30N136W. THIS SWELL WILL
CONTINUE PROPAGATING INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH ROUGH
SEAS REACHING AS FAR S AS 23N AND AS FAR E AS 120W, BEFORE
GRADUALLY SUBSIDING FRI THROUGH SAT. ROUGH SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT
ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 18N
AND WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE INFORMATION.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N76W TO 07.5N87W TO 06N96W.
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N96W TO 07.5N130W TO BEYOND 07N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 04N TO 07N BETWEEN
81.5W AND 88W, FROM 09.5N TO 11.5N BETWEEN 92W AND 98W, AND FROM
09.5N TO 14N BETWEEN 108W AND 117W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON A
GALE WARNING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
OUTSIDE OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, A LARGE AND DEEP-LAYERED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH OF THE AREA IS CENTERED OFFSHORE OF
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND EXTENDS CYCLONIC WIND FLOW INTO THE
REGIONAL WATERS WEST OF 120W. AN OLD AND WEAKENING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM BAJA NORTE SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR 26N120W.
THIS LEAVES A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CIRCULATION OFFSHORE OF BAJA
SUR. SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA HAVE
DIMINISHED TO MODERATE IN RECENT HOURS, WHERE SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED
TO AROUND 3 FT. WEST OF THE OLD FRONT, GENTLE SW WINDS PREVAIL
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA. SOUTH OF PUNTA
EUGENIA, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS PREVAIL INSIDE THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA, WHERE SEAS ARE 2 TO 4 FT, AND GENTLE TO
MODERATE N WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS OF BAJA SUR AND EXTEND
INTO THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. NW BUILDING INTO THE AREA IS
PRODUCING SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FT ACROSS THE BAJA NORTE WATERS AND 3 TO
6 FT SOUTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA. GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE NW TO N
WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE MEXICAN WATERS BETWEEN PUERTO
ANGEL AND BAJA SUR, WHERE SEAS ARE 3 TO 5 FT. WAVE GENERATED
ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE PRODUCING SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FT
ACROSS THE OUTER OFFSHORE WATERS WELL OFFSHORE OF TEHUANTEPEC.
FOR THE FORECAST, ASIDE FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, NW SWELL
OVER THE WATERS NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA WILL BE REINFORCED BY A
NEW NW SWELL BUILDING INTO THE REGIONAL WATERS TODAY INTO FRI,
SPREADING ROUGH SEAS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NW WINDS ARE
LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA SUN INTO MON AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD TOWARD TOWARD THE REGION.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ARE OVER THE PAPAGAYO REGION,
PRODUCING SEAS OF 6 TO 7 FT FARTHER OFFSHORE. MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH N WINDS EXTEND FROM THE GULF OF PANAMA SOUTHWARD TO 05N,
WHERE SEAS ARE 3 TO 5 FT. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE N
OF 05N. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE FOUND SOUTH OF 05N. SEAS ARE
IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE, EXCEPT TO 6 FT OFFSHORE OF WESTERN GUATEMALA
DUE TO NORTHERLY SWELL PROPAGATING OUT OF TEHUANTEPEC.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH
WILL SUPPORT PULSING FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST
GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MAINLY
GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF PANAMA
DURING THE PERIOD. GENTLE OR LIGHTER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON
SIGNIFICANT SWELL IMPACTING MUCH OF THE NORTHERN WATERS.
A COLD FRONT HAS STALLED FROM BAJA NORTE NEAR 30N115.5W TO
26N120W. CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE HAS
DIMINISHED OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS NOTED FROM 30N125W TO
26N140W. E OF THIS SECOND FRONT, A 210 NM WIDE BAND OF FRESH TO
STRONG SW WINDS ARE ONGOING EAST OF 130W, WITH FRESH TO STRONG W
TO NW WINDS BEHIND IT. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 115W IS INDUCING
SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION JUST W OF THE REVILLAGIGEDO
ISLANDS. ROUGH SEAS IN BUILDING NW SWELL ARE PRODUCING SEAS OF 8
FT AND HIGHER NW OF A LINE FROM 30N119W TO 16N140W, WITH SEAS OF
12-16 FT N OF 25N. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE WATERS, GENERALLY
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES DOMINATE THE WATERS S OF 14N,
WITH MODERATE SEAS 5 TO 7 FT IN MIXED NW AND SE SWELL.
THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DOMINATING THE PACIFIC WEST COAST
OF THE U.S. WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT NE INTO THE WEEKEND, AND ALLOW
FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGIONAL WATERS FROM
THE NW. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT A SURFACE TROUGH OR BROAD LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS BETWEEN 120W AND
128W SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND WILL YIELD INCREASING TRADE
WINDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
STRIPLING
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