323
AXPZ20 KNHC 252153
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU DEC 25 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2130 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: NORTHERLY GAP WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED BELOW GALE-FORCE THIS AFTERNOON, AND THE GALE WARNING
HAS EXPIRED. HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE REGION CENTERED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF OF AMERICA AND NORTHERN MEXICO WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN
AND REMAIN RELATIVELY STATIONARY INTO SAT, WHICH WILL MAINTAIN
STRONG GAP WINDS ACROSS AND DOWNWIND OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH THAT
TIME. WINDS MAY REACH JUST BELOW GALE-FORCE TONIGHT, AND THEN
SLOWLY WEAKEN EACH DAY THROUGH SAT. SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT CURRENTLY
EXTEND OFFSHORE OF THE COAST TO NEAR 11N, AND WILL LIKELY PEAK AT
10-11 FT TONIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT DURING THE STRONGEST WINDS.
NORTHERN WATERS SIGNIFICANT SWELL: LARGE NW SWELL GENERATED BY A
LARGE AND DEEP LAYERED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED N OF THE
AREA IS BRINGING VERY ROUGH SEAS TO WATERS N OF 23N AND W OF
123W, WITH SEAS OF UP TO 16 FT NEAR 30N136W. THIS SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE INTO THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH SAT, WITH
ROUGH SEAS REACHING AS FAR S AS 15N AND AS FAR E AS 119W ON FRI,
BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN. ROUGH SEAS OF
8 TO 12 FT ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA N OF 17N.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE INFORMATION.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09.5N75W TO 08N79W TO 10N85W TO
07N107W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N107W TO BEYOND 0.57N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 04.5N TO 08.5N
BETWEEN 84.5W AND 88.5W, FROM 09.5N TO 12.5N BETWEEN 94W AND
117W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON THE
EXPIRED GALE WARNING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
ASIDE FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, A LARGE AND DEEP- LAYERED
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH OF THE AREA IS CENTERED OFFSHORE OF
OREGON AND EXTENDS CYCLONIC WIND FLOW INTO THE REGIONAL WATERS
WEST OF 120W. AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS BAJA
NORTE AND THE ADJACENT WATERS TO THE SOUTHWESTWARD TODAY, LEAVING
A WEAK 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 29N118W AND OFFSHORE OF BAJA NORTE.
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA HAS BECOME
LIGHT FROM THE W AND SW. WEST OF THE HIGH PRESSURE, GENTLE TO
MODERATE SW WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS NORTHWEST OF ISLA
GUADALUPE. SOUTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL INSIDE THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, WHERE SEAS
ARE 2 TO 4 FT, AND GENTLE TO MODERATE N TO NE WINDS PREVAIL
ACROSS THE WATERS OF BAJA SUR AND EXTEND INTO THE REVILLAGIGEDO
ISLANDS. NW SWELL BUILDING INTO THE AREA IS PRODUCING SEAS OF 6
TO 9 FT ACROSS THE BAJA NORTE WATERS AND 4 TO 6 FT SOUTH OF PUNTA
EUGENIA. GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE NW TO N WINDS PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE MEXICAN WATERS BETWEEN PUERTO ANGEL AND BAJA
SUR, WHERE SEAS ARE 3 TO 5 FT. WAVE GENERATED ACROSS THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC ARE PRODUCING SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FT ACROSS THE OUTER
OFFSHORE WATERS WELL OFFSHORE OF TEHUANTEPEC.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF OF AMERICA WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE STRONG NORTHERLY GAP WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC, GRADUALLY DIMINISHING EACH DAY THROUGH SAT. NW
SWELL OVER THE WATERS NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA WILL BE REINFORCED
BY A NEW NW SWELL BUILDING INTO THE REGIONAL WATERS TODAY INTO
FRI NIGHT, SPREADING ROUGH SEAS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE BAJA WATERS
FRI NIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND TO BRING A RETURN TO MORE
TYPICAL NORTHERLY WINDS. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NW WINDS ARE
LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA SUN INTO TUE AS HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH GAP WINDS ARE OVER THE PAPAGAYO REGION, AND EXTEND OFFSHORE
TO NEAR 88W, PRODUCING SEAS OF 6 TO 7 FT FARTHER OFFSHORE.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH N TO N-NE WINDS EXTEND FROM THE GULF
OF PANAMA SOUTHWARD TO 06N, WHERE SEAS ARE 3 TO 5 FT. LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE N OF 05N. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE
FOUND SOUTH OF 05N. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-5 FT RANGE, EXCEPT TO 6 FT
OFFSHORE OF WESTERN GUATEMALA DUE TO NORTHERLY SWELL PROPAGATING
OUT OF TEHUANTEPEC.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH
WILL SUPPORT PULSING FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST
GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MAINLY
GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF PANAMA
DURING THE PERIOD. GENTLE OR LIGHTER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON
SIGNIFICANT SWELL IMPACTING MUCH OF THE NORTHERN WATERS.
AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS DISSIPATED FROM BAJA NORTE TO NEAR
26N120W. ANOTHER COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE AND
DEEP-LAYERED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OFFSHORE OF THE OREGON
COAST EXTENDS INTO THE AREA FROM 30N124W TO 24.5N136W. E OF THIS
SECOND FRONT, A 180 NM WIDE BAND OF FRESH SW WINDS ARE NORTH OF
27N AND EAST OF 130W, WITH FRESH TO STRONG W TO NW WINDS BEHIND
IT. ROUGH SEAS IN BUILDING NW SWELL ARE 8 FT AND HIGHER NW OF A
LINE FROM 30N119W TO 15N140W, WITH SEAS OF 12-16 FT N OF 25N.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE WATERS, GENERALLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
TRADES DOMINATE THE WATERS S OF 17N, WITH MODERATE SEAS 5 TO 7
FT IN MIXED NW AND SE SWELL.
THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DOMINATING THE PACIFIC WEST COAST
OF THE U.S. WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT SE AND INLAND THROUGH SAT,
AND ALLOW FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGIONAL
WATERS FROM THE NW. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT A SURFACE TROUGH
OR BROAD LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 20N
BETWEEN 120W AND 128W SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL COMBINE
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION TO PRODUCE A BRAND
ZONE OF INCREASING WINDS FROM 15N TO 25N AND W OF THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS, ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. SEAS MAY REACH 12 FT WITH THESE WINDS AS
N SWELL GRADUALLY FADES ACROSS THE AREA.
STRIPLING
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