080
AXPZ20 KNHC 260405
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI DEC 26 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
NORTHERN WATERS SIGNIFICANT SWELL: LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL
GENERATED BY A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
IS BRINGING VERY ROUGH SEAS TO WATERS NORTH OF 25N AND WEST OF
ABOUT 125W, WITH SEAS PEAKING TO AROUND 15 FT (4.5 M) NORTH OF
28N AND WEST OF 130W. THIS SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE INTO
THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH SAT, WITH ROUGH SEAS REACHING AS FAR
SOUTH AS 15N, AND AS FAR EAST AS 119W ON FRI BEFORE GRADUALLY
SUBSIDING FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN. ROUGH SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FT ARE
LIKELY TO PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF ABOUT 17N.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE INFORMATION.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA TO 08N79W TO
10N85W TO 06N95W TO 07N104W, WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ
TO 07N115W TO 08N125W TO 08N130W AND TO BEYOND 08N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF 06N85W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED TO AN INTENSE STORM CENTER LOCATED WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA EXTENDS FROM NEAR 30N123W SOUTHWESTWARD TO
25N130W AND TO 23N140W. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE FRONT NORTH OF 29N WEST OF 120W. SEAS WITH THESE WINDS ARE
IN THE 8 TO 12 FT RANGE, EXCEPT FOR HIGHER SEAS OVER THE AREA AS
DESCRIBED ABOVE UNDER THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT, A WEAK 1018 MB HIGH IS ANALYZED AT
25N116W. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE NEAR THIS HIGH CENTER. SOUTH
OF PUNTA EUGENIA, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NORTHWEST TO NORTH
WINDS CONTINUE INSIDE THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, WHERE SEAS ARE 2 TO
4 FT, AND GENTLE TO MODERATE N TO NE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE
WATERS OF BAJA SUR AND EXTEND INTO THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS.
NORTHWEST WELL BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA IS PRODUCING SEAS OF 6 TO
9 FT ACROSS THE BAJA NORTE WATERS AND 4 TO 6 FT SOUTH OF PUNTA
EUGENIA. HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION CENTERED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF OF AMERICA AND NORTHERN MEXICO WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN
AND REMAIN RELATIVELY STATIONARY INTO SAT, WHICH WILL MAINTAIN
STRONG GAP WINDS ACROSS AND DOWNWIND OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH THAT
TIME. WINDS MAY REACH JUST BELOW GALE-FORCE TONIGHT, AND THEN
SLOWLY WEAKEN EACH DAY THROUGH SAT. SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT ARE
CURRENTLY DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REACH TO NEAR
14N. THESE SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE GOING INTO SAT. OTHERWISE,
GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE MEXICAN WATERS BETWEEN PUERTO ANGEL AND BAJA
SUR, WHERE SEAS ARE 3 TO 5 FT. WAVES GENERATED ACROSS THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE PRODUCING SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT ACROSS THE OUTER
OFFSHORE WATERS WELL OFFSHORE OF TEHUANTEPEC.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF OF AMERICA WILL
CONTINUE TO INDUCE STRONG NORTHERLY GAP WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC, GRADUALLY DIMINISHING EACH DAY THROUGH SAT. GALE
CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION TUE
NIGHT. NORTHWEST SWELL PROPAGATING THROUGH THE WATERS NORTH OF
PUNTA EUGENIA WILL BE REINFORCED BY A NEW SET OF NORTHWEST SWELL
BUILDING INTO THE REGIONAL WATERS TODAY INTO FRI NIGHT, SPREADING
ROUGH SEAS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE BAJA WATERS FRI NIGHT THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND TO BRING A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL NORTHERLY
WINDS. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA SUN INTO TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH GAP NORTHEAST WINDS ARE OVER THE PAPAGAYO REGION, AND
EXTEND OFFSHORE TO NEAR 88W AS SEEN IN THE RECENT 0222Z ASCAT
PASS. SEAS WITH THESE WINDS ARE IN THE 5 TO 7 FT RANGE. MODERATE
TO LOCALLY FRESH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS EXTEND FROM THE GULF
OF PANAMA SOUTHWARD TO NEAR 06N, WHERE SEAS ARE 3 TO 5 FT IN
LONG-PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL. LIGHT TO GENTLE MOSTLY SOUTHWEST
WINDS ARE PRESENT ELSEWHERE N OF 05N. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS
ARE FOUND SOUTH OF 05N. SEAS ARE IN THE 4 TO 5 FT RANGE, EXCEPT
TO 6 FT OFFSHORE OF WESTERN GUATEMALA DUE TO NORTHWEST SWELL
PROPAGATING OUT OF TEHUANTEPEC.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH
WILL SUPPORT PULSING FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST
GAP WINDS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MAINLY
GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF
PANAMA DURING THE PERIOD. GENTLE OR LIGHTER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON
SIGNIFICANT SWELL IMPACTING MUCH OF THE NORTHERN WATERS.
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED TO AN INTENSE STORM CENTER LOCATED WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA EXTENDS FROM NEAR 30N123W SOUTHWESTWARD TO
25N130W AND TO 23N140W. MOSTLY FRESH SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE WITHIN
60 NM EAST OF THE FRONT NORTH OF 28N WHILE FRESH TO STRONG WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE WEST OF THE FRONT NORTH OF 28N. ROUGH
SEAS IN BUILDING NORTHWEST SWELL ARE 8 FT AND HIGHER NORTHWEST
OF A LINE FROM 30N119W TO 13N140W, WITH SEAS OF 12 TO 15 FT
NORTH OF ABOUT 25N. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE WATERS, GENERALLY
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES ARE PRESENT SOUTH OF 17N
WEST OF 128W ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS 5 TO 7 FT IN MIXED NW AND
SE SWELL.
THE STORM CENTER THAT IS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA IS FORECAST TO
MOVE INLAND THE PACIFIC NW COAST AND DISSIPATE. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGIONAL WATERS
FROM THE NW. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT A SURFACE TROUGH OR BROAD
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 20N BETWEEN
120W AND 128W SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION TO PRODUCE A BRAND ZONE OF
INCREASING WINDS FROM 15N TO 25N AND WEST F THE REVILLAGIGEDO
ISLANDS, ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. SEAS MAY REACH 12 FT WITH THESE WINDS AS LONG-
PERIOD NORTH SWELL GRADUALLY FADES ACROSS THE AREA.
AGUIRRE
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