072
AXPZ20 KNHC 260951
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI DEC 26 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0930 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
NORTHERN WATERS SIGNIFICANT SWELL: LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL
GENERATED BY A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
IS BRINGING VERY ROUGH SEAS TO WATERS NORTH OF 25N AND WEST OF
ABOUT 125W, WITH SEAS PEAKING TO AROUND 15 FT (4.5 M) NORTH OF
28N AND WEST OF 130W AS INDICATED BY OVERNIGHT ALTIMETER
SATELLITE DATA PASSES OVER THESE WATERS. WAVE PERIOD WITH THESE
SEAS IS OF 11-12 SEC. THIS SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE INTO
THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH SAT, WITH ROUGH SEAS REACHING AS FAR
SOUTH AS 15N, AND AS FAR EAST AS 119W TODAY BEFORE GRADUALLY
SUBSIDING FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN. ROUGH SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FT ARE
LIKELY TO PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF ABOUT 17N.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE INFORMATION.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA TO ACROSS
NORTHERN PANAMA AND TO 08N79W TO 10N85W TO 06N95W TO 07N104W,
WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ TO 07N115W TO 08N125W TO 08N130W
AND TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SOUTH OF
THE TROUGH WITHIN 60 NM OF 05N85W AND OF 05N87.5W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED TO AN INTENSE STORM CENTER LOCATED WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA EXTENDS FROM NEAR 30N127W SOUTHWESTWARD TO 29N130W
AND TO 28N140W. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE WEST OF THE
FRONT JUST NORTH OF 30N. TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT, A 1021 MB
HIGH CENTER IS ANALYZED AT 27N119W. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE NEAR
THE HIGH CENTER. SOUTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS CONTINUE INSIDE THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA,
WHERE SEAS ARE 3 TO 5 FT, AND GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS OF BAJA SUR EXTEND TO THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. NORTHWEST SWELL BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA IS
PRODUCING SEAS OF 7 TO 10 FT OVER THE BAJA NORTE WATERS AND 4 TO 6
FT SOUTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC REGION ALONG WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT. OTHERWISE, GENTLE
TO LOCALLY MODERATE NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE MEXICAN WATERS BETWEEN PUERTO ANGEL AND BAJA SUR, WHERE
SEAS ARE 3 TO 5 FT. WAVES GENERATED ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
ARE PRODUCING SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT ACROSS THE OUTER OFFSHORE WATERS
WELL OFFSHORE OF TEHUANTEPEC.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE GRADIENT RELATED TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF OF AMERICA WILL CONTINUE TO INDUCE STRONG NORTHERLY GAP
WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION THIS MORNING, THEN AT
FRESH TO STRONG SPEEDS, GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THROUGH SAT
AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY WEAKENS AND REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY. SEAS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE
THROUGH SAT. GALE CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC REGION TUE NIGHT. NORTHWEST SWELL PROPAGATING THROUGH
THE WATERS NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA WILL BE REINFORCED BY A NEW
SET OF NORTHWEST SWELL BUILDING INTO THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT, SPREADING ROUGH SEAS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE BAJA WATERS
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND BRINGING A RETURN TO
MORE TYPICAL NORTHERLY WINDS. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA SUN INTO
TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG GAP NORTHEAST WINDS ARE IN THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION. THEY OFFSHORE TO NEAR 88W AS SEEN IN
AN OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA PASS, AND AS INDICATED
BY A SHIP OBSERVATION IN THE AREA AT THE TIME. SEAS WITH THESE
WINDS ARE IN THE 5 TO 7 FT RANGE. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NORTH
TO NORTHEAST WINDS EXTEND FROM THE GULF OF PANAMA SOUTHWARD TO
NEAR 07N, WHERE SEAS ARE 3 TO 5 FT IN LONG-PERIOD SOUTHWEST
SWELL. LIGHT TO GENTLE MOSTLY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE PRESENT
ELSEWHERE NORTH OF 05N. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE OCCURRING
SOUTH OF 05N. SEAS ARE IN THE 4 TO 5 FT RANGE, EXCEPT TO 6 FT
OFFSHORE OF WESTERN GUATEMALA DUE TO NORTHWEST SWELL PROPAGATING
OUT OF TEHUANTEPEC.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PULSING FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG
NORTHEAST TO EAST GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION
THROUGH SAT NIGHT, THEN AT MOSTLY FRESH SPEEDS AFTERWARD. MOSTLY
GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF PANAMA
DURING THE PERIOD. GENTLE OR LIGHTER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE
SEAS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON SIGNIFICANT
SWELL IMPACTING MUCH OF THE NORTHERN WATERS.
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED TO AN INTENSE STORM CENTER LOCATED WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA EXTENDS FROM NEAR 30N127W SOUTHWESTWARD TO
29N130W AND TO 28N140W. MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EAST OF THE FRONT TO NEAR 121W AND NORTH OF 27N AS SEEN IN
OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA PASS WHILE MODERATE TO
FRESH NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE WEST OF THE FRONT NORTH OF
28N. ROUGH SEAS IN BUILDING NORTHWEST SWELL ARE 8 FT AND HIGHER
NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM 30N119W TO 20N127W AND TO 12N140W, WITH
SEAS OF 12 TO 15 FT NORTH OF ABOUT 25N. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
WATERS, GENERALLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES ARE PRESENT
SOUTH OF 17N WEST OF 128W ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS 5 TO 7 FT IN
MIXED NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST SWELL.
THE STORM CENTER THAT IS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA IS FORECAST TO
MOVE INLAND THE PACIFIC NW COAST AND DISSIPATE. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGIONAL WATERS
FROM THE NW. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT A SURFACE TROUGH OR BROAD
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WATERS SOUTH OF ABOUT
20N BETWEEN 120W AND 128W SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
COMBINE WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION RESULTING IN
A RATHER BROAD ZONE OF INCREASING WINDS REACHING TO STRONG SPEEDS
ROUGHLY FROM 16N TO 26N AND WEST OF THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS,
ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. SEAS
MAY REACH 12 FT WITH THESE WINDS AS LONG-PERIOD NORTH SWELL
GRADUALLY DECAYS ACROSS THE AREA.
AGUIRRE
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