161
AXPZ20 KNHC 261544
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI DEC 26 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1535 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
NORTHERN WATERS SIGNIFICANT SWELL: LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL
GENERATED BY A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
IS BRINGING VERY ROUGH SEAS TO WATERS NORTH OF 26N AND WEST OF
ABOUT 125W, WITH SEAS PEAKING TO AROUND 14 FT (4.5 M) NORTH OF
28N AND WEST OF 130W. WAVE PERIOD WITH THESE SEAS IS OF 11-13
SEC. THIS SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE INTO THE REGIONAL
WATERS THROUGH SAT, WITH ROUGH SEAS REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS 15N,
AND AS FAR EAST AS 119W TODAY BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING FRI
NIGHT THROUGH SUN. ROUGH SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FT ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL
INTO THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
NORTH OF ABOUT 17N.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE INFORMATION.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 07N98W. THE ITCZ
STRETCHES FROM 07N98W TO 08N120W AND TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT FROM 04N TO 08N AND BETWEEN 85W
AND 98W. SIMILAR CONVECTION FROM 07N TO 10N AND BETWEEN 130W AND
138W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE GULF
OF AMERICA AND LOWER PRESSURES IN THE DEEP TROPICS RESULT IN
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS OF 6-9 FT IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. FARTHER WEST, A STRONG GALE CENTER NEAR CALIFORNIA
SUSTAINS A LARGE AREA OF NW SWELL THAT IS PRODUCING SEAS OF 6-9
FT NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA, ESPECIALLY WEST OF GUADALUPE ISLAND.
MEANWHILE, MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE
FOUND IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND OFF BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT
TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE GRADIENT RELATED TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF OF AMERICA WILL CONTINUE TO INDUCE FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHERLY GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION THROUGH
SAT MORNING, THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY WEAKENS. SEAS IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH SAT. GALE CONDITIONS MAY
BE POSSIBLE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION TUE. NORTHWEST
SWELL PROPAGATING THROUGH THE WATERS NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA WILL
BE REINFORCED BY A NEW SET OF NORTHWEST SWELL BUILDING INTO THE
REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT, SPREADING ROUGH SEAS SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
ACROSS THE BAJA WATERS TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
BRINGING A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL NORTHERLY WINDS. FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA SUN INTO TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ACROSS
THE REGION.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO SUPPORT FRESH
TO LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO,
EXTENDING DOWNSTREAM TO 89W. SEAS OF 2-4 FT IN THE AREA
DESCRIBED. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PULSING FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG
NORTHEAST TO EAST GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION
THROUGH SAT NIGHT, THEN AT MOSTLY FRESH SPEEDS AFTERWARD. MOSTLY
GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF PANAMA
DURING THE PERIOD. GENTLE OR LIGHTER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON SIGNIFICANT
SWELL IMPACTING MUCH OF THE NORTHERN WATERS.
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT DOMINATES THE REST OF THE EASTERN
TROPICAL PACIFIC OUTSIDE OF THE SWELL REGION DESCRIBED IN THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS AND SEAS OF 8-10 FT ARE FOUND NORTH OF THE ITCZ TO
20N AND WEST OF 130W. MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH SE WINDS AND
SEAS OF 5-8 FT ARE EVIDENT SOUTH OF THE ITCZ AND WEST OF 110W.
ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE
PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE STORM CENTER THAT IS WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND THE PACIFIC NW COAST AND
DISSIPATE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO BEGIN TO BUILD
INTO THE REGIONAL WATERS FROM THE NW. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT
A SURFACE TROUGH OR BROAD LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WATERS SOUTH OF ABOUT 22N BETWEEN 120W AND 128W SUN INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION RESULTING IN A RATHER BROAD ZONE OF INCREASING WINDS
REACHING TO STRONG SPEEDS ROUGHLY FROM 16N TO 26N AND WEST OF THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS, ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. SEAS MAY REACH 12 FT WITH THESE WINDS AS
LONG-PERIOD NORTH SWELL GRADUALLY DECAYS ACROSS THE AREA.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY MIDWEEK.
DELGADO
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page