122
AXPZ20 KNHC 270943
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT DEC 27 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0930 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
NORTHERN WATERS SIGNIFICANT SWELL: LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL
CONTINUES TO INDUCE VERY ROUGH SEAS OVER THE WATERS NORTH OF 26N
AND WEST OF ABOUT 123W, WITH SEAS PEAKING TO AROUND 14 FT
(4.5 M) NORTH OF 28N AND BETWEEN 126W AND 133W. WAVE PERIOD WITH
THESE SEAS IS OF 12-14 SEC. THIS SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE INTO THE REGIONAL WATERS DURING TODAY, WITH ROUGH SEAS
EXPECTED TO REACH AS FAR SOUTH AS 13N, AND AS FAR EAST AS 117W.
THE SWELL WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH LATE SUN SOUTH OF 28N.
ROUGH SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FT ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM 17N TO
26N.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE INFORMATION.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA TO 08N79W
TO 08N90W TO 07N102W, WHERE LATEST SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA
PASSES INDICATE THAT IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ TO 09N117W TO
09N130W TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 60 NM NORTH OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 125W-132W, AND WITHIN 30
NM SOUTH OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 137W-140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
OVERNIGHT PARTIAL SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA INDICATES FRESH
TO STRONG NORTH WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION DUE TO
THE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED TO A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA.
SEAS OVER THESE WATERS ARE IN 5 TO 6 FT. FARTHER WEST, A LARGE
AREA OF NORTHWEST SWELL IS GENERATING SEAS OF 7 TO 11 FT NORTH OF
PUNTA EUGENIA, ESPECIALLY WEST OF GUADALUPE ISLAND. MEANWHILE,
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWEST WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE
SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GULF OF AMERICA WILL CONTINUE TO INDUCE FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHERLY GAP WINDS AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS IN THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION THROUGH SAT MORNING, THEN DIMINISH IN
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. GALE CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION STARTING LATE MON NIGHT. NORTHWEST SWELL
PROPAGATING THROUGH THE WATERS NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA WILL BE
SPREADING ROUGH SEAS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE BAJA WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BRINGING A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL NORTHERLY WINDS. FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA SUN INTO TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ACROSS
THE REGION.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO,
EXTENDING DOWNSTREAM TO 89W. SEAS OVER THESE WATERS ARE 4 TO 6
FT. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PULSING FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG
NORTHEAST TO EAST GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOSTLY GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTH WINDS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF PANAMA DURING THE PERIOD. GENTLE OR
LIGHTER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON SIGNIFICANT
SWELL IMPACTING MUCH OF THE NORTHERN WATERS.
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT DOMINATES THE REST OF THE EASTERN
TROPICAL PACIFIC OUTSIDE OF THE SWELL REGION DESCRIBED IN THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 30N117W
TO 28N119W TO 25N125W. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PATCHES AN AREA
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEAST TO EAST TRADE WINDS AND
SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT IN NORTHWEST TO NORTH SWELL ARE NORTH OF THE
ITCZ TO NEAR 26N AND WEST OF ABOUT 125W AS DEPICTED IN OVERNIGHT
SCATTEROMETER AND ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA PASSES. MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY FRESH SOUTHEAST WINDS AND SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FT ARE
SOUTH OF THE ITCZ AND WEST OF ABOUT 130W. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, AS LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WEAKENS
INLAND CALIFORNIA THIS WILL FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO BEGIN TO BUILD
INTO THE REGIONAL WATERS FROM THE NW. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT
A SURFACE TROUGH WITH ATTENDANT LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE WATERS SOUTH OF ABOUT 22N BETWEEN 120W AND 128W SUN INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE REGION RESULTING IN A RATHER BROAD ZONE OF INCREASING
WINDS REACHING TO STRONG SPEEDS ROUGHLY FROM 16N TO 26N AND WEST
OF THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS, ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF THESE WINDS
REACHING GALE-FORCE. SEAS MAY REACH 14 FT WITH THESE WINDS AS
LONG-PERIOD NORTH SWELL GRADUALLY DECAYS ACROSS THE AREA.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY MIDWEEK, BUT BEFORE THAN STAY TUNED TO
FUTURE WEATHER FORECAST UPDATES REFERENCING THE UPCOMING TROUGH
AND LOW PRESSURE FEATURE.
AGUIRRE
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